000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222036 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Feb 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Very large NW Swell: A gale-force low near 38N140W has generated a large set of NW swell. The low will move SSE toward the NW discussion waters through early Fri, stalling just north of the 30N border through Sat before drifting southward into the NW waters later in the weekend. Gales with this low are possible over the NW waters Sat night and Sun morning. Additionally, very large swell generated from this low will propagate southward with the low and impact the NW waters. Seas greater than 8 ft have passed across 30N140W this morning, and are peaking near 10 ft this afternoon. Seas greater than 12 ft associated with this swell will enter the NW waters tonight, then impact much of the waters north of 20N and west of 130W through late Sun night. Seas will peak near 21-22 ft on Sat and Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 03N105W. The ITCZ continues from 03N105W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 91W and 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting mainly moderate winds from the waters offshore the Baja California peninsula southward to Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate winds are in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range offshore the Baja California peninsula to south of Cabo Corrientes in subsiding NW swell. Seas of 6-7 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3 ft or less prevail in the Gulf of California, except to 4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night as high pressure builds behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. This will usher in the next gap wind event in Tehuantepec, with winds forecast to peak at near- gale force Fri night through Sat night. Winds in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into early next week. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, winds should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. Large, long-period WNW swell west of the Baja California peninsula to the Revillagigedo Islands will subside tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Winds have diminished below gale force in the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong winds extend well downstream to near 91W, with near- gale force winds closer to the Gulf. Seas over this area are in the 8-10 ft range. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds, locally to near gale, across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo will briefly diminish Fri before strengthening again over the weekend. Fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about upcoming very large NW swell. High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh to locally strong winds N of the ITCZ to near 16N and W of 120W. Moderate trades are elsewhere N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 110W. A cold front is over far NW waters with gentle to moderate winds in the vicinity of the front. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas of 8-10 ft in the far NW waters. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the waters from the equator to near 20N and W of 95W in NW swell...merging with NE swell E of 100W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-7 ft are noted. For the forecast aside from the upcoming very large NW swell, fresh to occasional strong tradewinds north of the ITCZ will continue through early Fri before diminishing. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will gradually decrease through Fri as the original NW swell decays. $$ AL