000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221527 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/SE United States and the eastern Pacific equatorial trough is supporting gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong winds extend well downstream to near 92W. Seas over this area are in the 8-10 ft range. Winds will diminish below gale force as the area of high pressure N of the area weakens slightly. The area of high pressure will start to shift eastward later today, helping to loosen the pressure gradient and further diminish winds through Fri. Very large NW Swell: A gale-force low near 40N141W has generated a large set of NW swell. The low will move SSE toward the NW discussion waters through early Fri, stalling just north of our 30N border through Sat before drifting southward into the NW waters later in the weekend. Gales with this low are possible over the northwesternmost waters near 30N140W Sat night and Sun morning. Additionally, very large swell generated from this low will propagate southward with the low and impact the NW waters. Seas greater than 8 ft have passing across 30N140W this morning. Seas greater than 12 ft associated with this swell will enter the NW waters tonight, then impact much of the waters north of 20N and west of 130W through late Sun night. Seas will peak near 22 ft on Sat and Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 03N104W. The ITCZ continues from 03N104W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 86W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 32N122W SE across the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting mainly moderate winds from the waters offshore the Baja California peninsula southward to Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range offshore the Baja California peninsula to south of Cabo Corrientes in NW swell. Seas of 6-8 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3 ft or less prevail in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night as high pressure builds behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. This will usher in the next gap wind event in Tehuantepec, with winds forecast to peak at near- gale force Fri night through Sat night. Winds in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into early next week. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, winds should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. Large, long-period WNW swell west of the Baja California peninsula to the Revillagigedo Islands will subside by tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please read the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the Gulf of Papagayo. Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo gales, winds in the Papagayo region will briefly diminish Fri before strengthening again over the weekend. Fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about upcoming very large NW swell. High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 18N and W of 120W. Moderate trades are elsewhere N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 110W. A cold front has entered the far NW waters with gentle to moderate winds in the vicinity of the front. The front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas of 8-9 ft in the far NW waters. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over much of the waters from the equator to near 20N and W of 95W in NW swell...merging with NE swell E of 100W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-7 ft are noted. For the forecast aside from the upcoming very large NW swell, fresh to occasional strong tradewinds north of the ITCZ will continue through early Fri before diminishing. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will gradually decrease through Fri as the original NW swell decays. $$ AL