000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220858 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Feb 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high over Central America and the Pacific equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong and locally near-gale NE to E winds over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds will briefly pulse to minimal gale force over the Gulf today with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Seas are expected to peak near 10 ft. Winds in the Papagayo region will briefly diminish Fri before strengthening again over the weekend. Fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. Large NW swell generated from the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside over the outer waters of Guatemala and El Salvador later today. Very large NW Swell: A gale-force low near 41N141W has generated a large set of NW swell. The low will move southeastward toward the NW discussion waters through early Fri, stalling just north of our 30N border through Sat before drifting southward into the NW waters later in the weekend. Gales with this low are now forecast to reach our northwesternmost waters near 30N140W Sat night and Sun morning. Additionally, very large swell generated from this low will propagate southward with the low and impact the NW waters. The swell will bring seas greater than 8 ft passing across 30N140W later today. Seas greater than 12 ft associated with this swell will enter the NW waters Thu night, then impact much of the waters north of 20N and west of 130W through late Sun night. Seas will peak near 22 ft on Sat and Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from the Panama-Colombia border near 07N78W to 04N104W. The ITCZ continues from 04N105W to beyond EQ140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-07N between 87W-107W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Conditions are quiescent throughout the Mexican offshore waters currently with gentle to moderate winds, except for a small area of fresh to strong N winds over the N Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 8-10 ft west of the Baja California peninsula to the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes due to large, long- period NW swell. Seas south of S Mexico are 6-8 ft, while seas in the Gulf of California are 2-3 ft. For the forecast, a cold front passing over the Gulf of Mexico will herald the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event beginning Fri night. Winds are anticipated to peak at near-gale force Fri night through Sat night. Winds in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into early next week. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, winds should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. Large, long-period WNW swell west of the Baja California peninsula to the Revillagigedo Islands will subside by tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please read the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong and occasional near-gale NE to E winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas in this area are in the 8-10 ft range. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador due to NW swell from the Tehuantepec gap wind event. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo gales, fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. Large NW swell generated from the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside over the outer waters of Guatemala and El Salvador later today. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about upcoming very large NW swell. A surface ridge extends from 26N140W to a 1026 mb high centered at 28N126W then southeastward to 17N107W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to occasional strong trades north of the ITCZ and west of 120W and gentle to moderate trades east of 120W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. NW swell is forcing 8-10 ft seas over most of our waters north of 02N. For the forecast aside from the upcoming very large NW swell, fresh to occasional strong tradewinds north of the ITCZ will continue through early Fri before diminishing. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will gradually decrease through Fri as the original NW swell decays. $$ Landsea