000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220251 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Feb 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure across Central America and the Pacific equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds will briefly pulse to minimal gale force over the Gulf tomorrow morning with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Seas are expected to peak near 10 ft. Winds in the Papagayo region will briefly diminish Fri before strengthening again over the weekend. Very large NW Swell: A storm force low near 45N142W has generated a large set of N swell. The low will move southward toward the NW discussion waters through early Fri, stalling just north of our 30N border through Sat before drifting southward into the NW waters while weakening later in the weekend. Gales with this low are forecast to remain north of the discussion waters, but very large swell generated from this low will propagate southward with the low and impact the NW waters. The swell will bring seas greater than 8 ft passing across 30N140W tomorrow. Seas greater than 12 ft associated with this swell will enter the NW waters tomorrow night, then impact much of the waters north of 20N and west of 130W through late Sun night. Seas will peak near 20 ft on Sat into Sun. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from the Panama-Colombia border near 07N78W to 04N105W. The ITCZ continues from 04N106W to beyond 01S140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-07N between 86W-103W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished to a small area of strong to near gale N winds with seas of 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, winds are quiescent across across the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 8-10 ft west of the Baja California peninsula to the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes due to large, long- period NW swell. Seas south of SW Mexico are 6-8 ft, while seas in the Gulf of California are 2-3 ft. For the forecast, the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is diminishing this evening, but still causing strong to near gale N to NE winds until tomorrow morning. Conditions over the Gulf will be quiescent Thu and Fri. However, a cold front passing over the Gulf of Mexico will herald the next Tehuantepecer beginning Fri night. Winds are anticipated to peak at near- gale force Fri night through Sat night. Winds in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into early next week. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, winds should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. Large, long-period WNW swell west of the Baja California peninsula to the Revillagigedo Islands will subside by tomorrow. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please read the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas in this area are in the 8-10 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador due to NW swell from the Tehuantepec gap wind event. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo gales, fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. Large NW swell generated from the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside over the outer waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow morning. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about upcoming very large NW swell. A surface ridge extends from 25N140W to a 1024 mb high centered at 27N128W then southeastward to 17N108W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure near the ITCZ is supporting fresh trades north of the ITCZ and west of 120W and gentle to moderate trades east of 120W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. NW swell is forcing 8-10 ft seas over most of our waters north of 05N. For the forecast aside from the upcoming very large NW swell, the fresh tradewinds north of the ITCZ will continue through early Fri before diminishing. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will gradually decrease through Fri as the original NW swell decays. $$ Landsea