000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212101 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Feb 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into Central America and the eastern Pacific equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong with locally near-gale NE to E winds over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas over these waters are in the 8-10 ft range. Winds will briefly pulse to minimal gale force in the Gulf Thu morning with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Winds in the Papagayo region will briefly diminish Fri before strengthening again over the weekend. Large NW Swell: A storm force low near 46N144W has generated a large set of northerly swell. The low will move southward toward the NW discussion waters through early Fri, stalling just N of the NW waters through Sat before drifting southward into the NW waters while weakening later in the weekend. Gales with this low are forecast to remain N of the discussion waters, but large swell generated from this low will propagate southward with the low and impact the NW waters. The swell will bring seas greater than 8 ft passing across 30N140W on Thu. Seas greater than 12 ft associated with this swell will enter the NW waters Thu night, then impact much of the waters N of 20N and W of 130W through late Sun night. Seas will peak near 20 ft on Sat and Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 05N81W to 03N103W. The ITCZ continues from 03N103W to 03N120W to beyond 02S140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 84W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished below gale force, with fresh to near-gale force winds prevailing this afternoon over and downstream the Tehuantepec region. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the forecast waters. This loose gradient is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds off the Baja California peninsula southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are noted over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Long period NW swell is bringing seas of 8-10 ft to the waters off the Baja California peninsula southward to the Revillagigedo Island. Seas of 6-7 ft are over the waters off SW Mexico. Seas in the northern Gulf of California are in the 4-5 ft range, with seas of 2-4 ft elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to diminish through the night, with marine conditions gradually improving. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, winds should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. Large, long-period WNW swell west of the Baja California peninsula to the Revillagigedo Islands will subside tonight through Thu. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event should begin Fri night, with winds currently forecast to peak at near- gale force Fri night through Sat night. Winds in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please read the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, with locally near gale winds closer to the Gulf. Seas in this area are in the 8-10 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama with seas of 5-6 ft. N of Papagayo, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador due to NW swell from the Tehuantepec gap wind event. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo gales, fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Panama through Thu night. Winds will diminish over the Gulf of Panama Fri into Sat, then increase once again this weekend. NW swell generated from the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside over the outer waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about upcoming large NW swell. High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 15N and west of 130W. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere N of the ITCZ to near 20N between 110W and 130W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Subsiding NW swell continues across the waters. Seas of 8-10 ft cover much of the waters W of 100W. For the forecast aside from the swell, the fresh tradewinds N of the ITCZ will continue through early Fri before diminishing. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will gradually decrease through Fri as the NW swell decays. $$ AL