000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210746
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Feb 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific equatorial 
trough will support gale-force N gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through this morning, with seas peaking near 12 ft. 
These gap winds will diminish later today as the area of high 
pressure weakens and moves farther from the area. Seas will lower
to below 8 ft by tonight.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over Central America and the Pacific equatorial 
trough is supporting fresh to strong and locally near-gale NE to
E winds over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds will 
briefly pulse to minimal gale force in the Gulf tomorrow morning 
with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Seas should 
peak near 10 ft tomorrow morning. Winds in the Papagayo region 
will briefly diminish Fri before strengthening again over the 
weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 03N100W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N100W to 04N114W, where it is interrupted by a
trough. The ITCZ continues again from 01N122W to beyond 01N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
01N-06N between 110W-118W as well as from 00N-03N east of 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about a Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weak pressure gradient
prevails across the forecast waters. This loose gradient is 
supporting gentle to locally moderate winds off the Baja 
California peninsula. Light winds are noted elsewhere. 8-11 ft 
long-period WNW swell is impacting the waters west of Baja 
California to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 6-7 ft are over 
the waters off SW Mexico, and only 1-2 ft over the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gales, 
winds should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next 
several days. The large swell will impact the waters west of 
Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands through tonight. 
Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepecer gap wind event should begin
Fri night, with winds currently forecast to peak at near-gale 
force Fri night through Sat night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Papagayo.

Fresh to strong and locally near gale NE to E gap winds, and 
seas of 6-7 ft, are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. 
Fresh to strong N winds are over and downstream the Gulf of 
Panama with seas of 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to 
moderate. Seas of 6-8 ft are well offshore Guatemala and El 
Salvador due to NW swell from the Tehuantepec gap wind event. 
Elsewhere, seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo gales, fresh to
occasionally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of 
Panama until Thu night. Winds should diminish over the Gulf of
Panama Fri into Sat, but the fresh to occasionally strong N to 
NE winds should resume Sat night into Sun. Large NW swell 
generated from a gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will impact the outer waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador today before diminishing tonight. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 30N123W to 25N125W with only
gentle to moderate winds on either side of the trough. A surface
ridge extends from 27N140W to a 1024 mb high centered at 21N120W. 
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower
pressure near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong trades
north of the ITCZ and west of 130W and gentle to moderate trades
east of 130W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the 
weak high center. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. NW swell is 
forcing 8-12 ft seas over most of our waters north of 05N and 
west of 105W.

For the forecast, high pressure will build into the NW waters in
the wake of the trough tomorrow. This will tighten the pressure 
gradient, and bring a slight increase to the trades north of the 
ITCZ and west of 120W. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft 
will gradually start to decrease late today as the NW swell 
decays. On Fri into the weekend, an extratropical low will move 
slowly eastward along the 30N border, bringing strong to near- 
gale N winds in its W semicircle. Also on Fri into the weekend, 
a new set of very large NW swell associated with the 
extratropical low will propagate into the NW waters. 

$$
Landsea