734 AXPZ20 KNHC 210320 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Feb 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific equatorial trough will support gale-force N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tomorrow morning, with seas peaking near 11 ft. These gap winds will diminish tomorrow as the area of high pressure weakens and moves farther from the area. Seas will lower to below 8 ft by tomorrow night. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Central America and the Pacific equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds will briefly pulse to minimal gale force in the Gulf late tomorrow night into Thu morning with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Seas should peak near 10 ft tomorrow night and Thu morning. Winds in the Papagayo region will briefly diminish Fri before strengthening again over the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 03N100W. The ITCZ continues from 03N100W to 04N114W, where it is interrupted by a trough. The ITCZ continues again from 01N122W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-06N between 110W-118W as well as from 00N-03N east of 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information about a Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the forecast waters. This loose gradient is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds off the Baja California peninsula and south of SW Mexico. Light winds are noted over the Gulf of California. 8-12 ft long-period WNW swell is impacting the waters west of Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 6-7 ft are over the waters off SW Mexico, and only 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gales, winds should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. The large swell will impact the waters west of Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands through Wed night. Looking ahead, the next Tehuantepecer gap wind event should begin Fri night, with winds currently forecast to peak at near-gale force Fri night through Sat night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please read the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds, and seas of 6-9 ft, are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to locally strong N winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama with seas of 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas of 6-8 ft are well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador due to NW swell from the Tehuantepec gap wind event. Elsewhere, seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo gales, fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. Large NW swell generated from a gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the outer waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tomorrow. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 30N125W to 24N128W. A 1027 mb high is centered west-northwest of the area near 27N147W, with ridge extending east-southeastward to a weak 1021 mb high near 23N118W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds over the waters north of 25N and between 125W-135W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades north of the ITCZ and west of 130W and gentle to moderate trades east of 130W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the weak high center. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. NW swell is forcing 8-12 ft seas over most of our waters north of 05N and west of 100W. For the forecast, high pressure will build into the NW waters in the wake of the trough on tomorrow and Thu. This will tighten the pressure gradient, and bring a slight increase to the trades north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will gradually start to decrease late tomorrow as the NW swell decays. On Fri into the weekend, an extratropical low will move slowly eastward along the 30N border, bringing strong to near-gale N winds in its W semicircle. On Fri into the weekend, a new set of very large NW swell associated with the extratropical low will propagate into the NW waters. $$ Landsea