000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201531
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Feb 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern north 
Pacific equatorial trough is supporting gale force N gap winds 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas peaking near 11 ft. The
area of high pressure will start to weaken and shift E Tue 
night. This will loosen the pressure gradient, and diminish winds
below gale force early Wed. The area of high pressure will 
continue to weaken and move further from the area, loosening the
pressure gradient and veering winds over the SW Gulf. This will 
further diminish winds to 20 kt or less by Thu morning.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over the southeast United States into the Gulf of
Mexico to Central America and low pressure within the eastern 
north Pacific equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong 
winds over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, with near- gale 
force winds closer to the Gulf. Winds will briefly pulse to 
minimal gale force in the Gulf Wed night with the added component
of nocturnal drainage flow. As the area of high pressure weakens
and moves further from the area, the pressure gradient will 
loosen and winds will diminish Fri and Fri night. Winds will 
strengthen again over the Gulf of Papagayo region on Sat as high 
pressure once again builds N of the area.

Large NW Swell: Large NW swell prevails across the northern 
waters, with seas greater than 12 ft covering the waters N of 20N
between 118W and 130W, and N of 25N between 130W and 140W. Seas 
are currently peaking near 13 ft. Seas will subside through the 
day, decreasing below 12 ft by this evening. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 08N78W to 04N97W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N97W to 04N116W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between
78W and 120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about a Tehuantepec Gale Warning and the very large NW swell.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weak pressure gradient
prevails across the forecast waters. This loose gradient is 
supporting gentle to locally moderate winds off the Baja 
California peninsula and the Gulf of California. Light winds are
noted elsewhere. Aside from the seas greater than 12 ft 
discussed above, seas 8 ft or greater cover the waters N of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 6-7 ft are over the waters off SW 
Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gales, winds
should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next several 
days. Large, long- period WNW swell will impact the waters west 
of Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands through Wed 
night. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event
should begin Fri night, but it may remain below gale force.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Papagayo.

Fresh to strong gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of
Papagayo, with near- gale force winds closer to the Gulf. Fresh
to locally strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of
Panama. Seas are 7-9 ft over the Gulf of Papagayo region and 4-6
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo gales, fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of 
Panama through Thu night before diminishing on Fri. Large NW 
swell generated from a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will impact the outer waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the ongoing large NW swell.

A surface trough extends from 30N121W to 11N140W. A 1027 mb high
is centered WNW of the area near 29N150W. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and the trough is supporting 
fresh to strong winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 131W. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh trades N of the ITCZ and W of 130W. A weak 1020 mb high is 
centered near 23N119W. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate trades N of the ITCZ to near 10N between 105W
and 130W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the weak 
high center. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Outside of the seas 
greater than 12 ft, seas 8 ft or greater cover the waters W of 
105W. 

For the forecast, high pressure will build into the NW waters in
the wake of the trough on Wed and Thu. This will tighten the
pressure gradient, and increase trades to fresh to locally 
strong N of the ITCZ and west of 120W. On Fri and Sat, a new 
extratropical low will move slowly eastward along our 30N border,
causing strong to near gale N winds in its W semicircle. Seas
will gradually start to decrease below 8 ft Wed as the NW swell
decays. On Fri, a new round of very large NW swell associated 
with the extratropical low will propagate into the NW waters. 

$$
AL