000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Feb 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure surging southward along the east side of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico is inducing gale force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region. The highest winds will occur overnight tonight, but gales will persist through Wed. Wave heights are forecast to peak at 14 ft tonight, possibly reaching 15 ft toward Mon morning. within the area of the gale winds. As the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward away from the region late this week, winds and seas will diminish. Significant NW Swell: A deep and complex 986 mb storm center well northwest of the area near 38N131W is generating large swell that has already propagated into the discussion area. The leading edge of seas 12 ft or greater extends from 30N126W 25N133W and 20N140W. Wave heights within this are as high as 18-23 ft with period of 13-15 seconds. These wave heights will remain over an extensive area through Tue while continuing to propagate east-southeastward, eventually reaching the waters offshore Baja California Norte. Strong to near gale force west to northwest winds south of the low center are impacting the waters south to near 28N and west of 128W. These winds will gradually diminish through early Tue. As the low weakens this week, the generated swell will slowly decay resulting in improving conditions by the middle of the week. Marine interests in the regions above are urged to monitor these situations and plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from just offshore the coast Colombia near 06N78W to 03N88W to low pressure near 04N95W 1010 mb to 06N104W to low pressure near 03N114W 1011 mb and to 04N118W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02N130W and to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 north of the trough between 80W-85W, and within 120 nm north of the trough between 85W-92W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 84W-90W, and within 120 nm southwest of the low pressure that is near 04N95W. Similar convection is within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 121W-124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information about a Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure of 1020 mb analyzed off Baja California Sur near 24N120W and lower pressure found in southern Mexico is sustaining fresh north winds off Cabo Corrientes as well as offshore Punta Eugenia. Large, long- period northwest swell is offshore Baja California producing wave heights of 8-11 ft. Gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are evident elsewhere. For the forecast, the large, long-period northwest swell will spread to near the Revillagigedo Islands by early Mon. This swell will be reinforced with a second group of large, long period northwest swell that will reach Guadalupe Island and Baja California Norte by Mon night along with peak wave heights to around 14 ft. The swell will subside through Thu while gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec diminish. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Gentle breezes and moderate seas are over the region, except for gentle to moderate northwest to north winds offshore Guatemala. For the forecast, fresh northwest winds will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala into Mon. Large northwest swell generated from nearby gale force gap winds will impact the waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed. Expect gap winds and rough seas in the Papagayo region and Nicaragua through late week as high pressure builds over the northwestern Caribbean. Farther south, fresh north winds and building seas are expected over the Gulf of Panama Mon night through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the ongoing significant swell. Outside of the previously discussed significant swell event, wave heights of 8-12 ft cover much of the waters north of the Equator and west west of 116W. Wave heights of 5-7 ft are present to the east of the aforementioned wave heights. A cold front extends from near 30N126W to 24N133W, then weakens to near 18N138W. Strong to near gale-force west to northwest winds are behind the front north of 28N, and fresh to strong northwest are also behind the front from 24N to 28N. Fresh southwest winds are ahead of the front north of 25N. Elsewhere, winds are mostly gentle, except for a swath of moderate to locally fresh trades north of the ITCZ to near 14N. For the forecast, high pressure will drift southeastward and and weaken through late Mon. This should allow for winds north of the ITCZ/trough to diminish through Tue. The cold front will continue to move eastward while weakening through Wed night. High pressure building southeastward behind the front will promote winds and wave heights north of the ITCZ to increase again Wed. Wave heights will subside over most of the region by late week. A new set of large, long-period swell is expected to begin moving through the northwest forecast waters north on Thu night. $$ Aguirre