000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182042
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning:
High pressure building E of the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico
is inducing gale force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region. The
highest winds will occur tonight, but gales will persist through
Wed. Seas will continue to build tonight, then peak at 10 to 15
ft Mon morning in and near the area of gales. As the high
pressure weakens and moves east away from the region late this
week, winds and seas will diminish. 

Significant NW Swell: 

A deep and complex 985 mb storm center northwest of the area 
near 37N139W is generating large swell moving to the southeast of
30N140W. This afternoon, seas above 12 ft cover waters NW of a
30N125W to 19N140W line, with seas peaking around 24 ft near
30N135W. Seas of 12 ft or greater will prevail over an extensive
area through Tue while spreading E and SE with time and 
eventually reaching the waters offshore Baja California Norte. 
Strong W winds south of the low center are impacting area N of 
26N and W of 128W, and these will continue into Mon night. As the
low weakens this weak, the swell generated will gradually decay,
and conditions will improve by the middle of the week. 

Marine interests in the regions above need to monitor these 
situations and plan their routes accordingly. Please read the 
latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N85W to 05N95W to 
08N105W to 05N110W to 04N120W. The ITCZ continues from 04N120W to
01N130W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 00N to 10N between 80W and 100W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information about
a Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A tight pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high pressure center
off Baja California near 25N122W and lower pressure over 
southern Mexico is sustaining fresh N winds off Cabo Corrientes 
as well as offshore Punta Eugenia. Long- period NW swell is 
reaching the waters off Baja California, with combined seas 
building to 8 to 10 ft. Gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
are evident elsewhere. 

For the forecast, large, long- period NW swell will spread to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands by tonight. This swell will be 
reinforced with a second group of large, long- period NW swell 
reaching Guadalupe Island and Baja California Norte by Mon night 
with combined seas to 14 ft. Looking ahead, the swell will 
subside through late Thu while gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec diminish. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle breezes and moderate seas are ongoing across the region,
except for an area of moderate N winds offshore Guatemala.

For the forecast, fresh NW winds will impact the offshore waters of 
Guatemala into Mon. Large NW swell generated from nearby gale- 
force gap winds will impact the waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador through mid week. Expect gap winds and rough seas in 
the Papagayo region and Nicaragua tonight through late week, as 
high pressure builds over the northwestern Caribbean. Farther 
south, fresh N winds and building seas are expected over the Gulf
of Panama Tue into Fri. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the ongoing significant swell.

Outside of the previously discussed most significant swell, seas
of 8 to 11 ft cover much of the waters N of the equator and W of
115W. To the E, seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate. A cold front extends
from 30N127W to 22N139W. Behind this front, fresh strong W winds
prevail, with some fresh SW winds ahead of the front, N of 27N 
and W of 122W. Elsewhere, winds are mainly gentle, except for a 
corridor of moderate to locally fresh trades N of the ITCZ to 
about 14N.

For the forecast, high pressure will gradually drift SE and 
weaken into early week, which should allow winds north of the 
ITCZ/trough to subside through Tue. The cold front will continue 
to drift east north of 20N while weakening through Wed night. 
High pressure building southeastward behind the front will cause 
winds and seas north of the ITCZ to increase again Wed. Seas 
will diminish across most of the region by late week, but new NW
swell will enter waters N of 20N and W of 130W starting Thu
night.

$$
Konarik