000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181531
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning:
High pressure building E of the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico
is initiating gale force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region 
this morning. The highest winds will occur from this afternoon 
through Mon morning, but gales will persist into Wed. Seas will 
build quickly through the day, then peak at 10 to 15 ft tonight 
and Mon in and near the area of gales. 

Significant NW Swell: 

A deep and complex 985 mb storm center northwest of the area 
near 37N139W is generating large swell moving to the southeast of
30N140W. This swell is reinforcing a previous group of large 
long period swells of 10 to 14 ft that encompass a broad area N 
of 11N and W of 124W. The new group of swell is leading to seas 
as high as 24 ft near 30N140W, and seas of 12 ft or greater will 
prevail over an extensive area through Tue while spreading E and 
SE with time and eventually reaching the waters offshore Baja 
California Norte. Strong W winds south of the low center are 
impacting area N of 25N and W of 130W, and these will continue 
through at least Mon. 

Marine interests in the regions above need to monitor these 
situations and plan their routes accordingly. Please read the 
latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N85W to 1010 mb low 
pressure near 05N95W to 08N105W to 05N110W to 04N120W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N120W to 01N130W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is evident within 120 nm of the low pressure
near 05N95W and elsewhere within 90 nm of the trough.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information about
a Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A tight pressure gradient between a 1020 mb high pressure center 
off Baja California near 25N122W and lower pressure over southern
Mexico is sustaining fresh N winds off Cabo Corrientes as well as
offshore Baja California Norte. Long- period NW swell is reaching
the waters off Baja California Norte, with combined seas building
to 8 to 10 ft. Gentle moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
are evident elsewhere. 

For the forecast, large, long- period NW swell will spread to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands by tonight. This swell will be 
reinforced with a second group of large, long- period NW swell 
reaching Guadalupe Island and Baja California Norte by Mon night 
with combined seas to 14 ft. Looking ahead, the swell will 
subside through late Thu. Aside from the aforementioned area of
gales, winds will generally be moderate or less this week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle breezes and moderate seas are ongoing across the region,
except for an area of moderate NW winds offshore Guatemala.

For the forecast, fresh winds and moderate to locally rough seas
will impact the offshore waters of Guatemala. Large NW swell 
generated from nearby gale-force gap winds will impact the 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador thereafter through mid week. 
Expect gap winds and rough seas in the Papagayo region and 
Nicaragua tonight into the latter part of the week, as a ridge 
builds over the northwestern Caribbean. Farther south, fresh N 
winds and building seas are expected over the Gulf of Panama Tue 
night through Thu night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the ongoing significant swell.

Outside of the previously discussed most significant swell, seas
of 8 to 11 ft cover much of the waters N of the equator and W of
120W. To the E, seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate. A cold front extends
from 30N131W to 24N140W. Behind this front, strong W winds
prevail, with some fresh SW winds ahead of the front, N of 27N
and W of 125W. Elsewhere, winds are mainly gentle, except for a
corridor of moderate to locally fresh trades N of the ITCZ to
about 14N.

For the forecast, high pressure will gradually drift southward 
and weaken through the weekend, which should allow winds north of
the ITCZ/trough to subside through Tue. The cold front will 
continue to drift east north of 20N while weakening through Thu. 
High pressure building southeastward behind the front will cause
winds and seas north of the ITCZ to increase again by midweek. 
Winds and seas will diminish across the region by late week, 
except for over the waters north of 20N and west of 130W when 
new NW swell enters the area. 

$$
Konarik