000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Feb 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. Updated Offshore Waters and Remainder Of Area sections ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant NW Swell Event and Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system over the northeast Pacific Ocean will bring two groups of large swell. The first swell group is associated with a cold front currently moving across the NW corner of the forecast area. This system will bring combined seas of 12 to 20 ft tonight into early Sat morning over the area NW of a line from 30N128W to 18N140W. The second swell event will arrive Sat night following by another cold front forecast to also move across the NW part of the forecast region. Strong to gale force winds are expected ahead and behind the second front Sat evening, and again behind this second front Sun afternoon as the pressure gradient tighten across the area N of 28N between 135W and 140W due to the presence of a powerful extratropical cyclone located N of forecast region. Seas are forecast to build to 20 to 23 ft with this second front. Long period NW swell, with a leading edge period of 19 to 21 seconds, will propagate across most of the waters N of the Equator and W of 110W on Sun. Seas will subside below 12 ft in the discussion area by Tue night, although rough seas will persist in most areas. Marine interests in the region need to monitor this developing situation and plan their route accordingly. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge building E of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region by early Sun morning. Winds are forecast to peak around 40 kt Sun afternoon through Sun night with seas building to 13 or 14 ft. Gale conditions will persist on Mon, then pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and early morning hours Mon night, and again Tue night. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 05N77W to 1011 mb low pressure near 03N97W to 02N122W. The ITCZ continues from 02N122W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 96W and 100W, from 03N to 06N between 114W and 116W, and from 08N to 11N between 104W and 106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for details. A relative tight pressure gradient between high pressure off Baja California and lower pressure over southern Mexico and farther south over the equatorial trough is supporting an area of fresh to strong NW to N winds off the State of Colima base on recent scatterometer data. These winds extend farther SW of the offshore forecast waters reaching 110W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds based on altimeter data. The above mentioned high pressure of 1023 mb, located near 27N124W, is producing moderate to locally fresh NW across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California N of Punta Eugenia, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, including the waters between Los Cabos and Las Maria Islands. For the forecast, the area of strong winds and rough seas off Colima will persist and move southeastward toward Michoacan and Guerrero tonight into Sat morning, reaching Oaxaca by Sat evening, and the Tehuantepec region by Sat night. The next gap wind event will begin in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Sun morning with winds reaching gale force through Mon. Large NW swell is forecast to reach the Baja California offshore waters Sat night into Sun causing very rough seas into midweek next week. By Mon morning, seas of 8 to 10 ft are forecast to dominate most of offshore waters of Baja California, with seas of 8 to 9 ft reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua, and downwind to about 91W with combined seas of 6 to 8 ft. Light and variable winds are noted E of 90W with light to gentle southerly winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due to the gap wind event in the Papagayo area. For the forecast, the fresh to strong easterly gap winds and moderate to rough seas will persist in the Papagayo region and off Nicaragua into Sat. Elsewhere, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. The next gap wind event is anticipated in the Papagayo region by Mon, with fresh to strong NE to E winds persisting through Wed. Gale conditions are possible Wed night as a ridge builds over the NW Caribbean. Looking ahead, fresh N winds are expected over the Gulf of Panama by late Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about an upcoming Significant Swell event, and a Gale Warning. A broad mid to upper level trough extends across NW Mexico, crosses Baja California Sur and continues SW over the open Pacific waters to near 02N130W. Strong SW winds ahead of this trough are transporting abundant moisture over Mexico into Texas and the southern states of the United States. A 1023 mb high pressure is situated near 27N124W and dominates most of the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. A cold front extends from 30N134W to 25N140W. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front. Altimeter data confirmed NW swell has already started to enter the discussion area, reinforcing existing 8 to 9 ft swell north of 28N and west of 125W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted per scatterometer data N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W. Based on altimeter data, seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift slowly southward tonight through the weekend ahead of a cold front moving across the NW part of the discussion area. The front is forecast to reach from 30N130W to 22N140W by Sat afternoon. A second cold front will reach the NW corner of the forecast region by Sat evening. These fronts are forecast to merge on Sun. Hazardous marine conditions will be associated with these fronts. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. $$ GR