000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Feb 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. Updated Offshore Waters and Remainder Of Area sections ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant NW Swell Event: A complex low pressure system over the northeast Pacific Ocean will bring two groups of large swell to the shipping lanes between southern California and Hawaii over the next several days. The first swell group will accompany a cold front moving south of 30N140W late Fri, and will bring combined seas of 12 to as high as 21 ft Fri night into early Sat over the area north of 20N and west of 135W. This swell will subside slightly as it spreads to the southeast through Sat, with combined seas of 12 ft or greater covering the waters north of 12N and west of 125w by Sat night, just as the second swell group starts entering the area to reinforce the first swell group. By late Sun night, long-period NW swell of 8 ft or greater will cover most the area west of 110W, with 12 to 20 ft combined seas mainly north of 15N and west of 125W. Combined seas will subside below 12 ft in the discussion area by Tue night, although rough seas will persist in most areas. Marine interests in the region need to monitor this developing situation and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 04N77W to 00N90W to a complex low with a mean center near 05N113W 1009 mb to 02N120W. The ITCZ continues from 02N120W to 01N135W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of the equatorial trough between 110W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A relative tight pressure gradient between high pressure off Baja California and lower pressure over southern Mexico is supporting an area of strong to near-gale force NW to N winds off Jalisco and Colima tonight, including off Cabo Corrientes. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in this area. Farther to the south, winds at Salina Cruz on the southern end of the Tehuantepec isthmus are increasing to 20 kt. This is supports fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, possibly reaching near-gale at times. Farther north, fresh N winds may be funneling between the coast of Baja California Norte and the 1024 high pressure near 29N125W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas off Cabo Corrientes and the coasts of Jalisco and Colima will shift southeastward toward Michoacan and Guerrero late Fri through Sat, but diminish slightly. Farther south, the fresh to strong northerly winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region trough early Fri morning. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Sun, possibly reaching gale-force through Tue night. Large NW swell is forecast to reach the Baja California offshore waters Sat night into Sun causing very rough seas into midweek next week. By Mon morning, seas of 8 to 10 ft are forecast to dominate most of offshore waters of Baja California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A large plume of fresh to strong NE to E winds persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua. A recent altimeter pass indicated seas to 8 ft within this area of winds. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to strong easterly gap winds and rough seas will persist in the Papagayo region and off Nicaragua through Friday, pulsing to near-gale force tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will impact the Gulf of Panama until late tonight. Elsewhere, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. The next gap wind event is anticipated in the Papagayo region by early next week. Looking ahead, winds expect fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama by late Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about an upcoming Significant Swell event. A broad mid to upper level trough reaches from off Baja California Norte southward to 10N110W. Divergence aloft associated with the trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms along an associated surface trough from 09N110W to a complex 1009 mb low pressure area near 05N113W to 02N120W. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass confirmed a large area of 20 to 30 kt winds within 300 nm west of this trough. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated seas of 8 to 12 ft in this area. This is embedded in a larger area of fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed swell covering the waters within 300 nm north of the equatorial trough and ITCZ west of 105W. Farther north, SW winds are increasing to near-gale force north of 28N and west of 130W ahead of an approaching cold front. NW swell is starting to move into the area, reinforcing existing 8 to 9 ft swell north of 28N and west of 125W. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure near 29N125W will remain quasi-stationary through Fri, then drift slowly southward Fri night through the weekend ahead of a cold front moving across the NW part of the forecast area. The front is forecast to reach 30N135W to 26N140W by Fri afternoon, and from 30N128W to 23N140W by Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong winds with very rough seas are expected ahead and behind this boundary through Saturday morning. The fresh to strong winds and rough seas, currently covering the waters from 05N to 13N between 110W and 120W, and from 03N to 08N between 120W and 130W, will gradually diminish over the next couple of days. Another cold front will reach the NW corner of the forecast region by Sat evening accompanied by fresh to strong winds and another significant swell event. $$ Christensen