000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152128 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Feb 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. Updated Offshore Waters and Remainder Of Area sections ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant NW Swell Event: A cold front will be near 30N140W tonight, and move across the NW corner of the forecast area Fri and Fri night. A new swell event will follow this front building seas to 18 to 20 ft across the waters W of a line from 30N132W to 23N140W by Fri evening, and W of a line from 30N128W to 17N140W by Sat morning. This swell event, with a leading edge period of 19 to 21 seconds, will continue to spread southward across the forecast region through Mon. A new set of NW swell will arrive by Sunday afternoon, sustaining seas at 12 to 18 ft north of 20N and W of 122W by Mon morning. At that time, seas in excess of 8 ft will dominate most of the waters N of the Equator and W of 110W. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft by mid- week, but seas 8 ft or greater will continue to affect most of the waters N of 00N and W of 110W. Marine interests in the region need to monitor this developing situation and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from 06N77W to 05N87W. The ITCZ continues from 05N87W to 02N130W to beyond 02N140W. A surface trough is analyzed within the ITCZ, and runs from 08N113W to 01N114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly ahead of the trough axis, from 02N to 06N between 113W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near-gale force northerly gap winds, with seas of 8 to 10 ft continue at the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure of 1025 mb located near 29N124W dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate NW winds are also noted per scatterometer data in the Gulf of California with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Fresh NW winds are noted in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region trough early Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected near Cabo Corrientes late today through Fri, before shifting southeastward to near Michoacan and Guerrero States Fri evening through Sat morning. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Sun, possibly reaching gale-force through Tue night. Large NW swell is forecast to reach the Baja California offshore waters Sat night into Sun causing very rough seas into midweek next week. By Mon morning, seas of 8 to 10 ft are forecast to dominate most of offshore waters of Baja California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 08N92W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. Moderate northerly winds are observed across the Gulf the Panama and downstream to near 04N80W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted within about 60 nm of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador due to seas generated in the gap wind areas of Tehuantepec and Papagayo. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly gap winds and rough seas will persist in the Papagayo region through Friday, pulsing to near-gale force tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will impact the Gulf of Panama until late tonight. Then, moderate to fresh N winds are expected in the Panama region through Fri night. Elsewhere, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. The next gap wind event is anticipated in the Papagayo region by early next week. Winds will likely increase again to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Panama early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about an upcoming Significant Swell event. A cold front located W of the forecast region is producing fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas W of a line from . A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 29N124W and dominates most of the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. A wide band of fresh to strong N to NW winds is noted between the high pressure and a surface trough previously mentioned in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. Seas are 9 to 13 ft within these winds based on altimeter data. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain quasi-stationary through Fri, then drift slowly southward Fri night through the weekend ahead of a cold front moving across the NW part of the forecast area. The front is forecast to reach 30N135W to 26N140W by Fri afternoon, and from 30N128W to 23N140W by Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong winds with very rough seas are expected ahead and behind this boundary through Saturday morning. The fresh to strong winds and rough seas, currently covering the waters from 05N to 13N between 110W and 120W, and from 03N to 08N between 120W and 130W, will gradually diminish over the next couple of days. Another cold front will reach the NW corner of the forecast region by Sat evening accompanied by fresh to strong winds and another significant swell event. $$ GR