000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. Updated Offshore Waters and Remainder Of Area sections ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant NW Swell Event: A cold front will be near 30N140W tonight, and move across the Nw corner of the forecast area Fri and Fri night. A new swell event will follow this front building seas to 16 or 18 ft across the waters W of a line from 30N128W to 24N133W to 17N140W by Sat morning. This swell event, with a leading edge period of 19 to 21 seconds, will continue to spread southward across the forecast region on Mon. A new set of NW swell will arrive by Sunday afternoon, sustaining seas at 12 to 18 ft north of 20N and W of 122W by Mon afternoon. At that time, seas in excess of 8 ft will dominate most of the waters N of the Equator and w of 110W. Marine interests in the region need to monitor this developing situation and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from 06N77W to 05N88W. The ITCZ continues from 05N88W to 04N115W to 02N130W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 89W and 100W, and from 02N to 06N between 113W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near-gale force northerly gap winds with seas of 8 to 10 ft continue at the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure of 1022 mb located near 28N124W dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft exist at the Gulf of California. Tight pressure gradient between this high and a surface trough south of central Mexico is causing fresh NW to N winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft offshore from Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell prevail elsewhere offshore from southern Mexico. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force gap winds along with rough seas will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through tonight. Then, marine conditions will improve Friday and Saturday. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected near Cabo Corrientes through Fri, before shifting southeastward to near Michoacan and Guerrero States Fri evening through Sat morning. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Sun, possibly reaching gale- force. Large NW swell is forecast to reach the Baja California offshore waters by Sun, causing very rough seas into midweek next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong with locally near-gale force easterly gap winds, and 7 to 9 ft seas are evident in the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft are noted downstream the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen off Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle with locally moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found near Colombia, Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail near western Panama. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly gap winds and rough seas will persist in the Papagayo region through Friday, pulsing to near-gale force tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will impact the Gulf of Panama until late tonight. Elsewhere, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. The next gap wind event is anticipated in the Papagayo region by early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about an upcoming Significant Swell event. A weakening stationary front runs southwestward from 31N130W to 25N135W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are seen north of 20N and west of 130W. A 1025 mb high near 29N123W is supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 16N between 120W and 130W. A robust surface trough is found well south of central Mexico near 11N113W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near this feature from 04N to 15N between 110W and 120W. Tight gradient between this trough and the aforementioned 1025 mb high is generating a band of fresh to strong northeasterly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft from 04N to 13N west of 106W. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE to S winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain quasi-stationary through Fri, then drift slowly southward Fri night through the weekend. The stationary front is anticipated to dissipate later tonight. In its wake, a strong cold front is expected to enter into the northwestern corner of the discussion area tonight through Friday, and bring fresh to strong winds with very rough seas ahead and behind this boundary through Saturday morning. The surface trough near 11N113W could develop into a low-level disturbance while drifting westward through Fri, with fresh to strong NE winds and very rough seas in its vicinity. Afterward, both the high and disturbance are anticipated to weaken, which should allow winds and seas to subside during the weekend. Looking ahead, a deep low may move just north of 30N135W late this weekend into early next week, with gale-force winds possible late Sat night. $$ GR