000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142020
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell: Large, long period, NW swell generated from a
storm force low NNW of Hawaii will propagate toward the 
discussion waters. The leading edge of seas greater than 12 ft 
will pass 30N140W late Thu/early Fri. Seas will peak near 20 ft 
with this swell on Friday. The leading edge of 12 ft seas will 
propagate SE and cover the waters roughly NW of a line from 
30N123W to 12N140W by Sat evening before starting to subside 
below 12 ft. Looking ahead, another reinforcing set of large NW 
swell may propagate into the NW waters late Sat night as another 
deep low pressure system moves just NW of the area. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 07N77W to 05N85W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N85W to 04N108W, and resumes from 05N108W to
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N 
between 94W and 102W, and from 05N to 09N between 108W and 112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gale force winds have diminished this morning in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with strong to locally near gale force winds 
prevailing. Seas in the Tehuantepec region are in the 8-9 ft
range. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge extends southeastward 
from a 1023 mb high centered near 28N121W to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and troughing across SW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong 
winds off Cabo Corrientes, where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. A
weak pressure gradient elsewhere is supporting gentle to 
moderate winds. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open 
waters off Mexico, with seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force gap winds, and rough
seas, across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will prevail through
Thursday evening. Marine conditions will then improve Friday and
Saturday. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected near Cabo
Corrientes today through Fri. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Sun, possibly 
reaching gale- force. Large NW swell is forecast to reach the 
Baja California offshore waters on Sun, causing very rough seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong gap winds, locally near gale force, prevail over
and downstream the Papagayo region. Seas over this area are in 
the 7-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds are over and 
downstream the Gulf of Panama, where seas are in the 5-7 ft 
range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE gap winds and rough seas 
will prevail in the Papagayo region through Friday night, pulsing
to near gale force tonight and Thu night. Fresh to occasionally 
strong northerly gap winds will impact the Gulf of Panama until 
late Thursday night. Elsewhere, relatively benign marine 
conditions will prevail for the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read Special Features above for more on a large NW swell
event moving into the discussion waters. 

A 1023 mb high pressure area is centered near 28N121W. A 
weakening cold front extends from 30N131W to 25N135W. The 
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the cold 
front is supporting moderate southerly winds within 60 NM east of
the front. A weak trough/disturbance has developed near 07N113W
to 05N114W. The pressure gradient between the area of high 
pressure and the trough is supporting fresh to strong winds, and
seas of 7-9 ft, from 09N to 15N between 108W and 115W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of 
the ITCZ to near 13N and W of 115W. Seas over this area are in 
the 7-8 ft range. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of 
the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 
4-7 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will drift east-
southeastward through Thu, then become nearly stationary off 
Baja California Norte into the weekend. The cold front is 
expected to move slowly eastward, then become stationary near 
30N131W on Thursday before dissipating by Thursday night. A 
stronger cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern corner 
of our discussion area on Friday, and push eastward through 
Saturday before dissipating just west the Baja California Norte 
on Saturday. Fresh to strong southerly winds and large NW swell 
will follow behind this front. The low-level disturbance will
drift westward through Fri, with fresh to strong NE winds and 
very rough seas in its vicinity. Afterward, both the high and 
disturbance are anticipated to weaken, which should allow winds 
and seas to subside during the weekend. Looking ahead, a deep low
may move just N of the NW waters later in the upcoming weekend, 
with gale force winds possible late Sat night.

$$
AL