000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141512 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Feb 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Though the pressure gradient over the Tehuantepec region has loosened, winds over the Tehuantepec region are reaching minimal gale force early this morning with the added component of drainage flow. Seas over this area are peaking near 11 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force later this morning, with strong northerly gap winds expected to continue through Thu night before marine conditions improve the end of the week into the weekend. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin Sun morning, with gale force winds possible. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 07N77W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 94W and 101W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning. Aside from the gale force gap winds, a broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1020 mb high centered near 28N123W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and troughing across SW Mexico is supporting fresh to locally strong winds off Cabo Corrientes. A loose pressure gradient elsewhere is supporting gentle to moderate winds. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, with seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will subside below gale-force later this morning but will remain at strong to near-gale speeds through Thursday evening. Rough to very rough seas will slowly subside through Thursday evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected near Cabo Corrientes today through Thu night. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Sun, possibly reaching gale- force. Large NW swell is forecast to reach the Baja California offshore waters on Sun, causing very rough seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to near- gale gap winds prevail over the Papagayo region, with fresh to strong winds extending downstream of the Gulf. Seas over this area are in the 7-10 ft range. Fresh to locally strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama, where seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE gap winds and rough seas will prevail in the Papagayo region through Friday night. Fresh to locally strong northerly gap winds are anticipated at the Gulf of Panama until late Thursday night. Elsewhere, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high pressure area is centered near 28N123W. A weakening cold front extends from 30N132W to 23N140W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the cold front is supporting moderate southerly winds within 60 NM of the front. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 13N and W of 110W. Seas over this area are in the 7-9 ft range. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the area of high pressure will drift east- southeastward and weaken through Thu, then become nearly stationary off Baja California Norte into the weekend. The cold front is expected to move eastward, then become stationary near 30N131W on Thursday before dissipating by Thursday night. A stronger cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern corner of our discussion area on Friday, and push eastward through Saturday before dissipating just west the Baja California Norte on Saturday. Fresh to strong southerly winds and large NW swell will follow behind this front. A low-level disturbance is forecast to develop across the tropical Pacific near 113W this afternoon and tonight. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high and this disturbance will produce fresh to strong NE winds and very rough seas of 8 to 12 ft from 04N to 13N and west of 105W through Friday. Afterward, both the high and disturbance are anticipated to weaken, which should allow winds and seas to subside during the weekend. Looking ahead, a deep low may move just N of the NW waters later in the upcoming weekend, with gale force winds possible N of 27N and W of 130W Sun and Sun night. $$ AL