000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141216 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Feb 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. Updated Offshore Waters and Remainder Of The Area sections ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1023 mb high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to channel N to NE winds toward the Chivela Pass in southern Mexico, sustaining near-gale to gale-force gap winds at Gulf of Tehuantepec until later this morning. Seas under these winds will peak between 10 and 12 ft. As the high weakens and moves eastward into the southeastern United States later today, this will allow winds to subside below gale force but remain at strong to near-gale through Thu evening. Seas will remain elevated at 8 to 10 ft. Afterward, marine conditions should improve further Friday through Saturday. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event is forecast to begin Sun morning, possibly reaching gale-force by Sun afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from 06N77W to 04N85W. An ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 05N115W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 120 nm along either side of the ITCZ. No significant convection is near the equatorial trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section about an ongoing Gale Warning. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1021 mb high centered near 28N124W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. It is supporting gentle N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate NW swell across waters west of Baja California, and light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas at the Gulf of California. Tighter gradient between this ridge and a surface trough near central Mexico is generating moderate to fresh N winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft off Cabo Corrientes. Outside the Gale Warning area, gentle to moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the waters off southern Mexico. For the forecast, gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will subside below gale-force later this morning but remain at strong to near-gale force through Thursday evening. Rough to very rough seas are also persisting through Thursday evening. Both winds and seas should decrease further Fri and Sat. Farther northwest near the central Mexico coast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected near Cabo Corrientes today through Thu night. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin Sun and could reach gale- force again. Large NW swell associated with a strong cold front is forecast to reach the Baja California offshore waters on Sun, causing very rough seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong ENE gap winds, and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present offshore from the Papagayo region. Mainly gentle ENE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell exist at the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted in the Gulf of Panama nearby waters. Gentle with locally moderate SE to S winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through early this weekend. NW swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event will impact the outer waters off of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight. Elsewhere, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front reaches southwestward from the northern Pacific across 30N134W to 24N140W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate to large NW swell are evident behind this front. A 1021 mb high near 28N124W is supporting gentle NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate NW swell north of 18N between 120W and 128W. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure is supporting moderate southerly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 128W and the front. Tight gradient between this same high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/equatorial trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds in the tradewind zone from 06N to 15N and W of 110W. Seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate mixed northerly swells are seen in this area. Elsewhere, mostly gentle SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast, the area of high pressure will drift east- southeastward and weaken through Thu, then become nearly stationary off Baja California Norte into the weekend. The cold front is expected to move eastward, then become stationary near 30N131W on Thursday before dissipating by Thursday night. A stronger cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern corner of our discussion area on Friday, and push eastward through Saturday before dissipating just west the Baja California Norte on Saturday. Fresh to strong southerly winds and large NW swell will follow behind this front. A low-level disturbance is forecast to develop across the tropical Pacific near 05N113W this afternoon and tonight. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high and this disturbance will produce fresh to strong NE winds and very rough seas of 8 to 12 ft from 04N to 13N and west of 105W through Friday. Afterward, both the high and disturbance are anticipated to weaken, which should allow winds and seas to subside during the weekend. Looking ahead, a deep low may move just N of the NW waters later in the upcoming weekend, with gale force winds possible N of 27N and W of 130W Sun and Sun night. $$ Chan