579 AXPZ20 KNHC 141000 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Feb 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1023 mb high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to channel N to NE winds toward the Chivela Pass in southern Mexico, sustaining near-gale to gale-force gap winds at Gulf of Tehuantepec until later this morning. Seas under these winds will peak between 10 and 12 ft. As the high weakens and moves eastward into the southeastern United States later today, this will allow winds to subside below gale force but remain at strong to near-gale through Thu evening. Seas will remain elevated at 8 to 10 ft. Afterward, marine conditions should improve further Friday through Saturday. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event is forecast to begin Sun morning, possibly reaching gale-force by Sun afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from 06N77W to 04N85W. An ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 05N115W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 120 nm along either side of the ITCZ. No significant convection is near the equatorial trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for more on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Aside from the gale warning, broad surface ridging extends from a 1020 mb high centered near 29N125W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient over the area is rather weak, supporting mainly light to gentle winds. NW swell is supporting 6-7 ft seas west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 5-6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will subside below gale-force later this morning but remain at strong to near-gale force through Thursday evening. Rough to very rough seas are also persisting through Thursday evening. Both winds and seas should decrease further Fri and Sat. Farther northwest near the central Mexico coast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected near Cabo Corrientes today through Thu night. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin Sun and could reach gale- force again. Large NW swell associated with a strong cold front is forecast to reach the Baja California offshore waters on Sun, causing very rough seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the Gulf of Panama as well as between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. NE swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force sap wind event is producing seas of 7-9 ft well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-5 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through early this weekend. NW swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event will impact the outer waters off of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight. Elsewhere, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 31N125W. A cold front is just NW of the area. The pressure gradient between the cold front and the area of high pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds over the far NW waters, where seas are near 8 ft. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/equatorial trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds in the tradewind zone from 04N to 13N and W of 100W. Seas in this area are in the 6-8 ft range in a mix of NE and NW swell. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, the area of high pressure will drift E-SE and weaken through Thu, then become nearly stationary into the weekend. A weakening cold front over the NW waters will move slowly eastward while weakening through Wed. A low level disturbance is forecast to develop across the tropical Pacific near 110W by Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge and this disturbance is forecast to produce strong NE winds and seas building 8 to 12 ft and higher through Fri, as the feature drifts W. The next pulse of significant NW swell will enter the NW waters Wed, ahead of the next cold front. This cold front is forecast to reach the NW waters by Thu evening, and weaken as it reaches near 30N130W Sat morning. Strong SW winds are expected Thu and Thu night ahead of the front. Large NW swell in excess of 12 ft will move into the far western waters behind the front over the weekend. Looking ahead, a deep low may move just N of the NW waters later in the upcoming weekend, with gale force winds possible N of 27N and W of 130W Sun and Sun night. $$ Chan