000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132025 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Feb 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific equatorial trough is supporting gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in this area are currently peaking near 12 ft. The area of high pressure will weaken and move into the SE United States through Wednesday. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds below gale force Wed morning. Strong northerly gap winds are then expected to continue through Thu night before marine conditions improve the end of the week into the weekend. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin Sat night, with gale force winds possible starting Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 04N86W to 03N117W. The ITCZ continues from 03N117W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 83W and 90W, and from 01N to 05N between 90W and 97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for more on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Aside from the gale warning, broad surface ridging extends from a 1020 mb high centered near 29N125W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient over the area is rather weak, supporting mainly light to gentle winds. NW swell is supporting 6-7 ft seas west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 5-6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with seas 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, an ongoing gap wind event will support gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Wed morning. Strong winds will then continue through Thu night before diminishing into the weekend. NW swell will slowly subside across the offshore waters of Baja California through Thu. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is possible starting Sat night with gale force winds possible starting Sun morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the Gulf of Panama as well as between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. NE swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force sap wind event is producing seas of 7-9 ft well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-5 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through early this weekend. NW swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event will impact the outer waters off of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight. Elsewhere, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 31N125W. A cold front is just NW of the area. The pressure gradient between the cold front and the area of high pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds over the far NW waters, where seas are near 8 ft. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/equatorial trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds in the tradewind zone from 04N to 13N and W of 100W. Seas in this area are in the 6-8 ft range in a mix of NE and NW swell. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, the area of high pressure will drift E-SE and weaken through Thu, then become nearly stationary into the weekend. A weakening cold front over the NW waters will move slowly eastward while weakening through Wed. A low level disturbance is forecast to develop across the tropical Pacific near 110W by Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge and this disturbance is forecast to produce strong NE winds and seas building 8 to 12 ft and higher through Fri, as the feature drifts W. The next pulse of significant NW swell will enter the NW waters Wed, ahead of the next cold front. This cold front is forecast to reach the NW waters by Thu evening, and weaken as it reaches near 30N130W Sat morning. Strong SW winds are expected Thu and Thu night ahead of the front. Large NW swell in excess of 12 ft will move into the far western waters behind the front over the weekend. Looking ahead, a deep low may move just N of the NW waters later in the upcoming weekend, with gale force winds possible N of 27N and W of 130W Sun and Sun night. $$ AL