000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131525 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Feb 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The pressure gradient between high pressure along the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific equatorial trough is supporting gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in this area are currently peaking near 13 ft. The area of high pressure will weaken and move into the SE United States through Wednesday. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds below gale force Wed morning. Strong northerly gap winds is then expected to continue through Thu afternoon before marine conditions improve the end of the week into the weekend. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin late Sat/early Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 05N84W to 03N118W. The ITCZ continues from 03N119W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 82W and 97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for more on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Aside from the gale warning, broad surface ridging prevails across the region, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 31N125W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure along Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of California, seas are in the 2-4 ft range. For the forecast, the latest gap wind event will support gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Wed morning. Strong gap winds will then continue through Thu afternoon before diminishing into the weekend. NW swell will slowly subside across the offshore waters of Baja California through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh winds prevail over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the Gulf of Panama as well as between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range. For the forecast, strong NE winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night tonight through the upcoming weekend. NW swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event will impact the waters off of Guatemala and El Salvador today through Wed. Elsewhere, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 31N125W. A cold front is just NW of the area. The pressure gradient between the cold front and the area of high pressure is supporting fresh to near gale force winds over the far NW waters, where seas are in the 8-9 ft range. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/equatorial trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. Seas in this area are in the 6-9 ft range in a mix of NE and NW swell. Elsewhere, gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, the high pressure will drift E-SE and weaken through Thu, then become nearly stationary into the weekend. The associated zone of trade winds to the S will then gradually diminish through tonight, with seas subsiding below 8 ft. A weakening cold front will enter the NW waters today. The front will move slowly eastward while weakening through Wed. A low level disturbance is forecast to create a trough across the tropical Pacific along about 110W by Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge and this trough is forecast to produce strong NE winds and seas building 8 to 12 ft and higher through Fri, as the trough drifts W. The next pulse of significant NW swell will enter the NW waters Wed, ahead of the next cold front. This cold front is forecast to reach near 30N140W by Thu evening, and weaken as it reaches 30N130W Sat morning. Strong SW winds are expected Thu and Thu night ahead of the front. Large NW swell in excess of 12 ft will move into the far western waters behind the front over the weekend. $$ AL