000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122101 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2010 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong cold front moving across the central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon is forecast to quickly induce gale-force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early this evening through early Wed morning. Seas will rapidly build to 11 ft late this evening across the outer waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and peak near 15 ft late tonight through sunrise on Tue. Wind and seas will diminish slightly Tue afternoon and Tue night, while winds remain near minimal gale-force within 75 nm of the coast of Tehuantepec through sunrise Wed. A significant area of strong northerly gap winds is then expected to continue Wed through Thu afternoon before marine conditions improve dramatically late Thu through Sat. Looking further ahead, another strong gap wind event is forecast to begin Sun morning, possibly increasing to gale- force. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 08N77W to 04N96W to 04N116W. The ITCZ continues from 04N116W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 82W and 97W and from 03N to 06N between 114W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridging prevails across the region, anchored on a 1025 mb high centered near 32N128W, and extends SE to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over W Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate N to N-NE winds across the Baja California offshore waters, with 6-7 ft seas in NW swell. Fresh to locally strong NW winds continue across the central and southern Gulf of California S of 29N, extending south to Las Tres Marias. Seas across the Gulf are 4-7 ft, and increase to 6-7 ft from the entrance of the Gulf to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle NW to W winds continue across the remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters with moderate seas to 4-6 ft. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to slowly subside across the offshore waters of Baja California through Thu. Fresh to locally strong N-NW winds over the central and S Gulf of California will gradually diminish to moderate this evening and tonight as high pressure across the Great Basin weakens. Weakening high pressure will persist W of 120W Tue through the remainder of the week. High pressure building southward into southeast Mexico behind a strong cold front moving across the central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon will induce gale-force N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early this evening through early Wed. Strong gap winds below gale-force will then continue Wed through Thu afternoon before diminishing into the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Gap winds across the Papagayo region and the Gulf of Panama have diminished today as a high pressure ridge over the W Caribbean continues to weaken and shift eastward, ahead of the Gulf of Mexico cold front. Seas across the Papagayo region have subsided to 4-5 ft and to 3-4 ft across the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 4-5 ft seas in mixed S and W swell. For the forecast, the ridge across the W Caribbean will shift E through Tue as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to diminishing gap winds across the Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama through Tue morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will then resume later on Tue and continue through next week as the cold front stalls across the NW Caribbean and weakens, and high pressure builds N of the region. NW swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event will briefly move into the waters off of Guatemala and El Salvador Tue through Wed. Elsewhere east and southeast of Papagayo, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. No significant cross- equatorial swell is expected through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging in association with a 1025 mb high centered near 32N128W extends SE to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and SW into the eastern tropical Pacific. The modest pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the ITCZ is producing an area of moderate to fresh trades from 05N-21N west of 113W. Large NW swell is mixing with shorter period NE to E wind waves in this area of fresh tradewinds, creating rough seas of 8 to 10 ft across this area. Moderate S winds prevail across the far NW waters W of 136W, ahead of a weak cold front lifting N of the area. Seas are 6-7 ft there in NW swell. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-8 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure along 128W will drift E-SE and weaken through Thu, then become nearly stationary into the weekend. The associated zone of trade winds to the S will then gradually diminish through Tue night, with seas subsiding below 8 ft. A weakening cold front will enter the NW waters Tue and move slowly eastward, gradually diminishing along about 132W on Wed. A low level disturbance is forecast to create a trough across the tropical Pacific along about 110W by Wed. The pressure gradient between the weakened ridge and this trough is forecast to produce strong NE winds and seas building 8 to 12 ft and higher through Fri, as the trough drifts W. The next pulse of significant NW swell will enter the NW waters Wed, ahead of the next cold front. This cold front is forecast to reach near 30N140W by Thu evening, and weaken as it reaches 30N130W Sat morning. Strong SW winds are expected Thu and Thu night ahead of the front. Large NW swell in excess of 12 ft will move into the far western waters behind the front over the weekend. $$ Stripling