000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico today is forecast to quickly induce gale-force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early this evening through early Wed morning. Seas will rapidly build to 11 ft late this evening across the outer waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and peak at around 13 ft late tonight through near sunrise on Tue. Wind and seas will diminish slightly Tue afternoon and Tue night, while winds remain near minimal gale-force within 75 nm of the coast of Tehuantepec through sunrise Wed. A significant area of strong northerly gap winds is then expected to continue Wed through Thu afternoon before marine conditions improve dramatically late Thu through Sat. Looking further ahead, another strong gap wind event is forecast to begin Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 08.5N78W to 03N95W to 04.5N115W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N115W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 83W and 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 114W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridging prevails across the region, anchored on a 1024 mb high centered near 32N128W, and extends SE to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over W Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate N to N-NE winds across the Baja California offshores waters along with 6-7 ft seas in NW swell. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are along the central and southern Gulf of California S of 29N, extending south to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas across the Gulf are 4-7 ft, and increase to 6-7 ft from the entrance of the Gulf to 7-8 ft off of Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle NW to W winds continue across the remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters with moderate seas to 5-6 ft. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to slowly subside across the offshore waters of Baja California through Thu. Building high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to support fresh to locally strong N-NW winds over the central and S Gulf of California to offshore Cabo Corrientes through late this morning before diminishing. Weakening high pressure will then persist W of 120W Tue through the remainder of the week. A strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico today is forecast to induce gale-force N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early this evening through early Wed. Strong gap winds below gale-force will then continue Wed through Thu afternoon before diminishing into the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A high pressure ridge over the W Caribbean is acting to maintain moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region, where seas are 4-6 ft. The same ridge is also producing gentle to moderate N winds over the Gulf of Panama to 05N, with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 4-5 ft seas in mixed S and W swell. For the forecast, the ridge across the W Caribbean will weaken today as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic high pressure begins to drift eastward. This will lead to diminishing gap winds across the Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama through Tue morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will then resume later on Tue and continue through next week as high pressure builds N of the region and across the W Caribbean again. Elsewhere east and southeast of Papagayo, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. No significant cross-equatorial swell is expected through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging in association with a 1024 mb high centered near 32N128W extends SE to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the ITCZ is producing a large area of mainly fresh trades from 07N-18N west of 118W. Large NW swell is mixing with shorter period NE wind waves in this area of fresh tradewinds, creating rough seas of 8 to 10 ft across this area. Moderate SE to S winds prevail across the far NW waters W of 138W, ahead of a weak cold front lifting N of the area. Seas are 7 ft there in NW swell. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-8 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure will drift E and weaken through the upcoming week. The associated zone of trade winds to the S will then gradually diminish through Wed, with seas subsiding below 8 ft. A weakening cold front will enter the NW waters Tue and move slowly eastward, gradually diminishing along about 132W on Wed. A low level disturbance is forecast to create a trough across the tropical Pacific along about 110W by Wed. The pressure gradient between the weakened ridge and this trough is forecast to produce strong NE winds and seas building 8 to 10 ft and higher through Fri, as the trough drifts W. The next pulse of significant NW swell will enter the NW waters Wed, ahead of the next cold front. This cold front is forecast to reach near 30N140W by Thu evening, and weaken as it reaches 30N130W Sat morning. Strong SW winds are expected Thu and Thu night ahead of the front. $$ Stripling