000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120952
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico today is 
forecast to quickly induce gale-force N winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region early this evening through early Wed morning.
Seas will rapidly build to 10 ft this evening across the outer 
waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and peak at around 13 ft late 
tonight through near sunrise on Tue. Wind and seas will diminish
slightly Tue afternoon and Tue night, while winds remain near 
minimal gale-force within 75 nm of the coast of Tehuantepec 
through sunrise Wed. A significant area of strong northerly gap 
winds is then expected to continue Wed through Thu afternoon 
before marine conditions improve dramatically late Thu through 
Sat. Looking further ahead, another strong gap wind event is 
forecast to begin Sun morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 03N96W to 04N118W. 
The ITCZ continues from 04N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 85W and 
96W, and from 03N to 06N between 112W and 123W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
Broad surface ridging prevails across the region, anchored on a 
1025 mb high centered near 32N127W, and extends SE to the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and low pressure over W Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate  
N to N-NE winds across the Baja California offshores waters along
with 6-7 ft seas in NW swell. Fresh to strong NW winds are along
the Gulf of California S of 29N, extending south to offshore of 
Cabo Corrientes. Seas across the Gulf are generally 3-5 ft, and 
increase to 6-7 ft from the entrance of the Gulf to 7-8 ft off of
Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle NW to W winds are across the 
remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters with moderate seas to 
5-6 ft.

For the forecast, NW swell to 7 ft will continue subside across 
the offshore waters of Baja California this morning. Building 
high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to support 
fresh to locally strong N-NW winds over the central and S Gulf of
California to offshore Cabo Corrientes through later this morning
before diminishing. Weakening high pressure will then persist W 
of 120W Tue through the remainder of the week. A strong cold 
front moving across the Gulf of Mexico today is forecast to 
induce gale-force N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
early this evening through early Wed. Strong gap winds below 
gale-force will then continue Wed through Thu afternoon before 
diminishing into the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge over the
W Caribbean and low pressure near the equator is maintaining 
fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region with 5-6 ft
seas. The same pressure gradient is also maintaining moderate N 
winds over the Gulf of Panama to 05N, with seas to 5 ft. 
Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 4-6 ft seas in mixed S 
and W swell. 

For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient across the W
Caribbean will continue to weaken through today as a cold front 
moves across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic high pressure begins
to drift eastward. This will lead to diminishing gap winds 
across the Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama. Fresh to strong NE
winds will then resume Tue and continue through next week as 
high pressure builds N of the region and across the W Caribbean 
again. Elsewhere east and southeast of Papagayo, relatively 
benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. 
No significant cross-equatorial swell is expected through Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging in association with a 1023 mb high centered near
33N129W extends SE to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the ITCZ is 
forcing a large area of mainly fresh trades from 08N-17N west of
117W. Large NW swell is mixing with shorter period NE wind waves
in the area of fresh tradewinds, creating rough seas of 8 to 10 
ft across this area. Moderate SE to S winds prevail across the 
far NW waters W of 138W, ahead of a weak cold front lifting N of
the area. Seas are 7-8 ft there in NW swell. Elsewhere winds are
moderate or weaker with seas 5-8 ft in NW swell. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will drift E and weaken 
through the upcoming week. The associated zone of trade winds to 
the S will then gradually diminish through Wed, with seas 
subsiding below 8 ft. A weakening cold front will enter the NW 
waters Tue and move slowly eastward, gradually diminishing along 
about 132W on Wed. A low level disturbance is forecast to create 
a trough across the tropical Pacific along about 110W by Wed. The
pressure gradient between the weakened ridge and this trough is 
forecast to produce strong NE winds and seas building 8 to 10 ft 
and higher through Fri, as the trough drifts W. The next pulse of
significant NW swell will enter the NW waters Wed, ahead of the 
next cold front. This cold front is forecast to reach near 
30N140W by Thu evening, and weaken as it reaches 30N130W Sat 
morning. Strong SW winds are expected Thu and Thu night ahead of 
the front. 

$$
Ramos