000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112132 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Feb 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico on Mon and is forecast to quickly induce gale-force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early Mon evening through early Wed. Seas will rapidly build to 10 ft Mon evening across the outer waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and peak at around 13 ft late Mon night through near sunrise on Tue. Wind and seas will diminish slightly Tue afternoon and Tue night, while winds remain near minimal gale-force within 75 nm of the coast of Tehuantepec through sunrise Wed. A significant area of strong northerly gap winds is then expected to continue Wed through Thu afternoon across the Tehuantepec region before marine conditions improve dramatically late Thu through Sat. Yet another strong gap wind event is currently forecast to begin Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 06.5N78W to 05.5N83W to 05.5N117W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N117 to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05.5N E of 88W to the coastal waters of Colombia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Clearing skies were seen today across the region, as a middle to upper level trough continues to sink southward across northern Mexico and the Baja Peninsula. Dense high clouds associated with the jetstream continue across Jalisco. At the surface, broad surface ridging prevails across the region today, anchored on a 1027 mb high centered near 32N130W, and extends SE to the waters offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over W Mexico is supporting moderate N to N-NE winds across the Baja California offshores waters extending to 20N, where they become locally fresh across the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across the area are 6 to 7 ft in NW swell, except 7 to 8 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte and surrounding the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are seen across the full length of the Gulf of California, extending south to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas across the Gulf are generally 3-5 ft, and increase to 6-7 ft from the entrance of the Gulf to 7-8 ft off of Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle NW to W winds are across the remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters with moderate seas to 5-6 ft. For the forecast, NW swell will subside across the offshore waters of Baja California tonight, with seas falling below 8 ft. Building high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will force fresh to locally strong N-NW winds over the central and S Gulf of California to offshore Cabo Corrientes through Mon morning before diminishing. Weakening high pressure will then persist W of 120W Tue through the remainder of the week. A strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico Mon and is forecast to induce gale-force N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early Mon evening through early Wed. Strong gap winds below gale-force will then continue Wed through Thu afternoon before diminishing into the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge over the W Caribbean and low pressure near the equator is maintaining fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 88W, with 6-7 ft seas. The same pressure gradient is also maintaining moderate N winds over the Gulf of Panama to 05N, with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 4-6 ft seas in mixed S and W swell. For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient across the W Caribbean will weaken tonight through Mon as a cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic high pressure begins to drift eastward. This will lead to diminishing gap winds across the Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama. Fresh to strong NE winds will then resume Tue and continue through next week as high pressure builds N of the region and across the W Caribbean again. Elsewhere east and southeast of Papagayo, relatively benign marine conditions will prevail for the next several days. No significant cross-equatorial swell is expected through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging in association with a 1027 mb high centered near 32N130W extends SE to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the ITCZ is forcing a large area of mainly fresh trades from 06N-19N west of 115W. Large NW swell is mixing with shorter period NE wind waves in the area of fresh tradewinds, creating rough seas of 8 to 11 ft across this area. Moderate SE to S winds prevail across the far NW waters W of 136W, ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Seas are 8 ft there in NW swell. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-8 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure along 130W will drift E and weaken through the upcoming week. The associated zone of trade winds to the S with then gradually diminish through Wed, with seas subsiding below 8 ft. A weakening cold front will enter the NW waters Tue and move slowly eastward, gradually diminishing along about 132W on Wed. A low level disturbance is forecast to create a trough across the tropical Pacific along about 110W by Wed. The pressure gradient between the weakened ridge and this trough is forecast to produce strong NE winds and seas building 8 to 10 ft and higher through Fri, as the trough drifts W. The next pulse of significant NW swell will enter the NW waters Wed, ahead of the next cold front. This cold front is forecast to reach near 30N140W by Thu evening, and weaken as it reaches 30N130W Sat morning. Strong SW winds are expected Thu and Thu night ahead of the front. $$ Stripling