000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Feb 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico on Mon and is forecast to quickly induce gale-force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early Mon evening through early Wed. Seas will rapidly build to 10 ft Mon evening and peak to 13 ft early on Tue. Wind and seas will begin to gradually diminish Tue afternoon while winds remain near minimal gale-force within 60 nm of the coast of Tehuantepec through sunrise Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 08N77W to 04N90W to 03N120W. The ITCZ continues from 03N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05.5N E of 95W to the coast of Colombia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough continues to sink southward across northern Mexico and the Baja Peninsula, and is supporting scattered showers that have shifted inland across Nayarit and Jalisco. Behind the trough, widely scattered light showers are moving S-SW across the waters of the Gulf of California and into the coast between San Bruno and Cabo San Lucas. Broad surface ridging prevails across the region this morning, anchored on a 1025 mb high centered near 32N132W the extends SE to the waters offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over W Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh N winds across the Baja California offshores waters extending to just S of the Revillagigedo Islands, where seas are 6 to 7 ft, except to 8 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Similar N-NW winds are seen across the full length of the Gulf of California, extending south to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas across the Gulf are generally 3-4 ft, and increase to 5-6 ft from the entrance of the Gulf to solid 7 ft off of Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle NW to W winds are across the remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters with moderate seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, NW swell to 8 ft affecting the waters west of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro will gradually subside today. Building high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will force fresh to locally strong NW winds over the central and S Gulf of California, as well as offshore Cabo Corrientes, today through Mon night. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico Mon and is forecast to induce gale- force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early Mon evening through early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge over the W Caribbean and low pressure near the equator is forcing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 89W, with 5-8 ft seas. The same pressure gradient is forcing moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama to 04N, with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 5-6 ft seas in mixed S and W swell. For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient across the W Caribbean will continue to force fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through today. Fresh to strong NE winds will then resume Tue and continue into late next week. Moderate to fresh NE winds over the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds late this morning and to light to gentle speeds tonight. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will then likely return Tue night and prevail through Wed night. Elsewhere, relatively benign conditions will prevail for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging in association with a 1025 mb high centered near 32N132W extends SE to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the ITCZ is forcing a large area of mainly fresh trades from 04N-19N west of 115W. Large NW swell is mixing with shorter period NE wind waves in the area of fresh tradewinds, creating rough seas of 8 to 12 ft. Seas around 12 ft cover the waters from 06N-12N and west of 138W. Seas will continue to gradually decay and fall below 12 ft today as the swell subsides and trades slowly diminish. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-8 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, as the high pressure and ridge will steadily weaken during the next few days, while the trades gradually diminish in strength through Mon. By Tue, most of the area is likely to be devoid of winds higher than moderate speeds and seas higher than 8 ft, as a cold front enters the far NW waters. The next pulse of NW swell will enter the NW waters Tue evening associated with this cold front, that is forecast to reach near 30N130W by Wed evening, possibly bringing some fresh winds on both sides of it. $$ Stripling