000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110953
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico Mon 
night and is forecast to induce gale-force N winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec region Mon evening through early Wed. Seas will
rapidly build to 8 ft Mon evening and peak to 13 ft early on Tue.
Wind and seas will begin to gradually diminish Tue afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 06N77W to 02N95W to 02N112W. 
The ITCZ continues from 03N113W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is over Colombia adjacent waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A middle to upper level trough continues to support scattered to
isolated showers across the offshore waters of Nayarit. Surface 
ridging in association with a 1027 mb high centered near 31N135W
extends SE across the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and low pressure over W Mexico is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the Baja California 
offshores with 7 to 8 ft seas in NW swell extending as far south 
as the Revillagigedo Islands. Over the Gulf of California, winds 
are moderate from the NW with seas to 3 ft, with similar 
conditions extending south to the Colima offshores, but with 5-7 
ft seas. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder S and SW 
Mexican offshore waters with moderate seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast, NW swell to 8 ft affecting the waters west of 
Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro will gradually subside 
today. Building high pressure over the US Great Basin will cause
fresh to locally strong NW winds over the central and S Gulf of 
California, as well as offshore Cabo Corrientes, today through 
Mon night. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move across 
the Gulf of Mexico Mon night and is forecast to induce gale-force
N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region Mon night through early Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the W 
Caribbean and low pressure near the equator is forcing fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region 
with 5-7 ft seas. The same pressure gradient is forcing moderate
to fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama with seas to 6 
ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 5-6 ft seas in 
mixed swell. 

For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient will continue to force
fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region
through today. Fresh to strong NE winds will then resume Tue and
continue into late next week. Moderate to fresh NE winds over 
the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds this morning
and to light to gentle speeds tonight. Moderate to locally fresh
NE winds will then likely return Tue night and prevail through 
Wed night. Elsewhere, relatively benign conditions will prevail 
for the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging in association with a 1027 mb high centered near
31N135W extends SE to the Baja Peninsula offshores. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the ITCZ is 
forcing a large area of mainly fresh trades from 07N-18N west of 
119W. Large long-period NE swell is mixing with shorter period NE
wind waves in the area of fresh tradewinds, thus creating 
dangerous confused seas. Seas around 12 ft cover the waters from 
06N-12N and west of 139W. Seas will continue to gradually decay 
and fall below 12 ft today as the swell subsides and trades 
slowly diminish. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas
5-8 ft in NW swell. 

For the forecast, as the high pressure and ridge steadily weaken
during the next few days, the trades will diminish in strength 
substantially today and Mon. By Tue, most of the area is likely 
to be devoid of winds higher than moderate and seas higher than 8
ft. The next long period NW swell may enter the NW waters Tue 
evening associated with a cold front that is forecast to reach 
near 30N130W by Wed evening, possibly bringing some fresh winds 
on both sides of it.

$$
Ramos