000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110352 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Feb 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 06N77W to 03N93W to 03N109W. The ITCZ continues from 04N110W to 03N130W to beyond 05N140W. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with the equatorial trough or the ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough continues to support scattered to isolated showers across the offshore waters from Nayarit to Colima, Mexico. Surface ridging in association with a 1025 mb high centered near 32N135W extends SE across the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over W Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the Baja California offshores with 7 to 8 ft seas in NW swell extending as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands. Over the Gulf of California, winds are moderate from the NW with seas to 3 ft, with similar conditions extending south to the Colima offshores, but with 5-7 ft seas. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters with moderate seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, NW swell affecting the waters west of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro will gradually subside through tonight. Building high pressure over the US Great Basin will cause fresh to locally strong NW winds over the central and S Gulf of California, as well as offshore Cabo Corrientes, Sun through Mon night. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico Mon night and is forecast to induce gale- force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region Mon night through Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the W Caribbean and low pressure near the equator is forcing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region with 5-6 ft seas. The same pressure gradient is forcing moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 5-6 ft seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient will continue to force fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun, which will resume Tue and continue into late next week. Moderate to fresh NE winds over the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds by Sun morning and to light to gentle speeds Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will then likely return Tue night and prevail through Wed night. Elsewhere, relatively benign conditions will prevail for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large long-period N and NE swell is mixing with shorter period NE wind waves in an area of strong tradewinds north of the ITCZ creating dangerous confused seas. Seas around 12 ft cover the waters from 06N-12N and west of 136W. Seas will continue to gradually decay and fall below 12 ft tonight as the swell subsides and trades slowly diminish. Surface ridging in association with a 1026 mb high centered N of 30N extends SE to the Baja Peninsula offshores. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the ITCZ is forcing a large area of fresh to locally strong trades from 05N-20N west of 118W. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-8 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, as the high pressure and ridge steadily weaken during the next few days, the trades will diminish in strength substantially Sun and Mon. By Tue, most of the area is likely to be devoid of winds higher than moderate and seas higher than 8 ft. The next long period NW swell may enter the NW waters Tue evening associated with a cold front that is forecast to reach near 30N130W by Wed evening, possibly bringing some fresh winds on both sides of it. $$ Ramos