000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100922
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Northerly Swell and Northeast Wind Waves:
Large long-period N and NE swell is mixing with shorter period NE
wind waves in an area of strong tradewinds north of the ITCZ
creating dangerous confused seas. Seas greater than 12 ft cover
the waters from 05N-14N and west of 133W, with seas peaking near
12 ft. The areal coverage of seas greater than 12 ft will
gradually decrease through tonight as the swell slowly subsides,
and the tradewinds slowly diminish. Seas are expected to subside
below 12 ft tonight. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 04N87W to 04N98W. 
The ITCZ continues from 04N99W to 04N120W to 06N140W. No 
significant deep convection is occurring in association with the 
equatorial trough or the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A middle to upper level trough continues to bring a lot of 
moisture to the Baja Peninsula S of Cabo San Lazaro and the
entrance of the Gulf of California, which is supporting 
scattered showers in those regions. Surface ridging in 
association with a pair of 1027 mb highs N of 30N extends SE 
across the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and low pressure over W Mexico is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds along the Baja California offshores with 
8 to 9 ft seas in NW swell extending as far south as Cabo San 
Lazaro. Over the Gulf of California, winds are moderate to fresh
N of 29N and S of 24N with seas to 4 ft. Gentle to moderate NW 
winds are across the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters with
moderate seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, NW swell affecting the waters west of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro will gradually subside through 
Sat night. Building high pressure over the US Great Basin will  
cause fresh to locally strong NW winds over the central and S 
Gulf of California Sun through Mon night. Looking ahead, a 
strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico Mon night
and likely produce gale-force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region Mon night through early Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the W 
Caribbean and low pressure near the equator is forcing fresh to 
strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region with 5-7 ft
seas. The same pressure gradient is forcing winds of the same
magnitude over the Gulf of Panama with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, 
winds are light to gentle with 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell. 

For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient will continue to 
force fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region through Sun, which will resume Tue eveving and continue
beyond mid-week. Fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of 
Panama will diminish to moderate speeds by Sun morning and to
light to gentle speeds Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh NE 
winds will possibly return Tue night and prevail through Wed 
night. Elsewhere, relatively benign conditions will prevail for 
the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features Section for information on an 
ongoing large swell episode.

Surface ridging in association with a 1027 mb high near 31N140W
extends SE to the Baja Peninsula offshores. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the ITCZ is 
forcing a large area of fresh to strong trades from 05N-20N west 
of 120W. Wind waves are combining with large N and NE swell to 
produce an expansive area of very large seas - see above for more
information. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 
5-8 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, as the high pressure and ridge steadily weaken
during the next few days, the trades will diminish in strength 
substantially on Sun and Mon. By Tue, the entire area may be 
devoid of winds higher than moderate and seas higher than 8 ft. 
The next long period NW swell may enter the NW waters Tue night.

$$
Ramos