000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092050
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Northerly Swell and Northeast Wind Waves:
Large long-period N swell is mixing with shorter period NE wind
waves in an area of strong tradewinds north of the ITCZ creating
dangerous confused seas. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters
from 06N-14N and west of 130W, with seas peaking near 13 ft.
Areal coverage of seas greater than 12 ft will gradually decrease
through the weekend as the swell slowly subsides, and the
tradewinds slowly diminish. Seas are expected to subside below 12
ft late Sat. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 06N78W to 04N85W to 04N93W. 
The ITCZ continues from 04N93W to 04N120W to 05N139W. No 
significant deep convection is occurring in association with the 
equatorial trough or the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A middle to upper level trough continues to bring a lot of 
moisture to the Baja California Sur and Gulf of California, 
which is supporting scattered moderate convection in those 
regions. Over the Gulf of California winds are gentle to moderate
from the NW, with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Surface ridging in 
association with a 1029 mb high near 31N142W extends SE across 
the Baja Peninsula, which is supporting mainly moderate NW winds 
and 8-10 ft long- period NW swell extending as far south as the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas
dominate the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, large long-period NW swell affecting the 
waters west of the Baja California peninsula south to the 
Revillagigedo Islands will gradually diminish through Sat night. 
Building high pressure over the US Great Basin should cause fresh
NW winds over the central and S Gulf of California on Sun and 
Mon. Looking ahead, a strong cold front pushing across the Gulf 
of Mexico is likely to produce gale-force Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
winds Mon night through Tue. 


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the W 
Caribbean and low pressure near the equator is forcing strong NE
to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 6-8 ft. The
same pressure gradient is forcing strong NE winds over the Gulf 
of Panama with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to 
gentle with 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell. 

For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient will continue to 
force strong to near gale NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo
region through Sat before moderating some Sun and Mon. The same 
pressure gradient is forcing fresh to strong NE winds over the 
Gulf of Panama through Sat night. Elsewhere, relatively benign 
conditions will prevail for the next several days. Looking ahead,
fresh to strong NE to E winds may recommence over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region Tue. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features Section for information on an 
ongoing large swell episode.

A ridge of high pressure extends from a 1029 mb high at 31N142W 
southeastward to the Baja Peninsula offshores. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the ITCZ is 
forcing a large area of fresh to strong trades from 05N-20N west 
of 118W. Wind waves are combining with large N swell to produce 
an expansive area of very large seas - see above for more 
information. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 
8-11 ft in NW to N swell west of 111W and 6-7 ft east of 111W.

For the forecast, as the high pressure and ridge steadily weaken
during the next few days, the trades will diminish in strength 
substantially on Sun and Mon. By Tue, the entire area may be 
devoid of winds higher than moderate and seas higher than 8 ft. 
The next long period NW swell may enter the NW waters Tue night.

$$
Konarik