895 AXPZ20 KNHC 091002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Feb 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Northerly Swell and Northeast Wind Waves: Large long-period N swell is mixing with shorter period NE wind waves in an area of strong tradewinds north of the ITCZ creating dangerous confused seas. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters from 06N-12N and west of 124W, with seas peaking near 13 ft per recent altimeter data. Areal coverage of seas greater than 12 ft will gradually decrease through the weekend as the swell slowly subsides, and the tradewinds slowly diminish. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by Saturday night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 04N84W to 04N92W. The ITCZ continues from 04N93W to 04N124W to beyond 05N140W. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with the equatorial trough or the ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough continues to bring a lot of moisture to the Baja California Sur and Gulf of California, which is supporting scattered showers in those regions. Over the Gulf of California winds are gentle from the NW, except moderate S of 25N where seas are 3-5 ft. Surface ridging in association with a 1030 mb high near 30N142W extends SE across the Baja Peninsula, which is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and 8-9 ft long-period NW swell extending as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate NW winds are over the SW Mexican waters from Jalisco to Michoacan with 5-7 ft seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. For the forecast, tranquil winds are expected over forecast waters through Sat night. The large long-period NW swell affecting the waters west of the Baja California peninsula south to the Revillagigedo Islands will gradually diminish through Sat night. Building high pressure over the US Great Basin should cause fresh to locally strong NW winds over the central and S Gulf of California on Sun and Mon. Looking ahead, a strong cold front pushing across the Gulf of Mexico may produce a gale-force Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event Mon night and Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the W Caribbean and low pressure near the equator is forcing strong to near gale NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 6-8 ft. The same pressure gradient is forcing fresh to near gale-force NE winds over the Gulf of Panama with seas of 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are gentle with 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the W Caribbean and low pressure near the equator will continue to force strong to near gale NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region into Sat night before moderating some Sun and Mon. The same pressure gradient will force fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Panama also through Sat night. Elsewhere, relatively benign conditions will prevail for the next several days. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE to E winds may recommence over the Gulf of Papagayo region Tue night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing large swell event. A ridge of high pressure extends from a 1030 mb high at 30N142W southeastward to the Baja Peninsula offshores. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the ITCZ is forcing a large area of fresh to strong trades from 05N-20N west of 121W. Wind waves are combining with large N swell to produce an expansive area of very large seas - see above for more information. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 8-11 ft in NW to N swell west of 111W and 6-7 ft east of 111W. For the forecast, as the high pressure and ridge steadily weaken during the next few days, the trades will diminish in strength substantially on Sun and Mon. By Mon, the entire area may be devoid of winds higher than moderate and seas higher than 8 ft. No new long-period swell or cold fronts are expected for at least the next several days. $$ Ramos