000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Northerly Swell and Northeast Wind Waves: Large long-period N swell is mixing with shorter period NE wind waves in an area of strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ creating dangerous confused seas. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters from 04N-18N and west of 121W, with seas peaking near 15 ft as observed by an 0630Z altimeter overpass near 11N133W. Areal coverage of seas greater than 12 ft will gradually decrease through the end of the week into the weekend as the swell slowly subsides, and the tradewinds slowly diminish. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by Saturday night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 07N77W to 03N96W. The ITCZ continues from 03N96W to 06N127W, then resumes from 06N131W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-05N east of 93W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Low pressure over the SW United States is forcing fresh to strong SW winds with seas 5-7 ft over the N Gulf of California. Elsewhere over the Gulf of California gentle to moderate NW winds and seas 3-5 ft prevail. A ridge of high pressure extends from 25N120W southeastward to 20N107W with gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the Pacific waters. Large long-period NW swell is affecting the waters west of the Baja California peninsula south to the Revillagigedo Islands. No significant deep convection is occurring this morning. For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW winds over the N Gulf of California will diminish tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. The large long- period NW swell affecting the waters west of the Baja California peninsula south to the Revillagigedo Islands will gradually diminish through Sat. Building high pressure over the US Great Basin should cause fresh to locally strong NW winds over the central and S Gulf of California on Sun and Mon. Looking ahead, a strong cold front pushing across the Gulf of Mexico may produce a gale-force Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event beginning Mon night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure over the W Caribbean and Central America is forcing strong to near gale NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo this morning. The same high pressure is forcing fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Panama. Seas are 8-10 ft in both areas. Elsewhere, winds are gentle with seas are 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-05N east of 93W, associated with the equatorial trough. For the forecast, the high pressure over the W Caribbean and Central America will continue to force strong to near gale NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region into Sat night before diminishing some Sun and Mon. The same high pressure is forcing fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Panama also through Sat night. Elsewhere, relatively benign conditions will prevail for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing large swell event. A weak cold front has reached from 30N120W to 29N125W, where it becomes stationary to 30N129W. NW winds are fresh behind the front. A ridge of high pressure extends from a 1031 mb high at 31N145W southeastward to 20N107W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the ITCZ is forcing a large area of fresh to strong trades from 05N-20N west of 120W. These wind waves are combining with large N swell to produce an expansive area of high seas - see above for more information. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 8-12 ft in NW to N swell west of 110W and 6-8 ft east of 110W. For the forecast, as the high pressure and ridge weaken by Sun, the trades will diminish in strength substantially on Sun and Mon. No new long-period swell or cold fronts are expected for the next several days. $$ Landsea