000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080820
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large N swell and NE wind waves:
Large, long-period northerly swell is mixing with shorter period
NE wind waves in an area of strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ
creating dangerous confused seas. Seas greater than 12 ft cover
the waters from 04N to 17N and west of 124W, with seas peaking
near 15 ft. Areal coverage of seas greater than 12 ft will
gradually decrease through the end of the week into the weekend 
as the swell slowly subsides, and the tradewinds slowly diminish.
Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by Saturday night. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 07N77W to 03N96W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N96W to 06N125W, then resumes from 07N130W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N 
to 06N between 87W and 91W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters off the Baja 
California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to locally 
fresh winds west of the Baja California peninsula SE to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands and in the entrance to the Gulf of 
California. A surface trough is in the northern Gulf of 
California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and trough is
supporting fresh to strong gap winds in the northern Gulf of 
California. Moderate winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico. NW swell is producing seas in the 8-11 ft range west of 
the Baja California peninsula southward to the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico. In the northern Gulf of California, seas are in the 3-5 
ft range, with seas of 2-4 ft elsewhere in the Gulf. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds will prevail in the 
far northern Gulf of California today. Moderate winds will 
prevail over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula SE 
to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Large, long- period northerly 
swell over the offshore waters west of the Baja California 
peninsula south to the Revillagigedo Islands will persist today, 
then gradually subside through weekend. Looking ahead, the next 
Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is possible 
starting early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong gap winds, locally near gale force, are over the
Gulf of Papagayo, with moderate winds extending downstream of 
the Gulf. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in this area. Fresh to 
strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama, with 
seas in the 6-8 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6
ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, gap winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to
near gale force at night through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to 
strong winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through early 
Sun. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over and downstream of 
Gulf of Panama through Sat. Elsewhere relatively benign 
conditions will prevail. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features Section for information on an 
ongoing large swell event.

A ridge of high pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to
strong trades N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 130W, as well as
from 08N to 12N between 120W and 130W. Elsewhere N of the ITCZ, 
moderate to locally fresh winds prevail. South of the ITCZ, light
to gentle winds are noted. Outside the area of 12 ft seas, seas 
of 8 ft or greater cover the waters W of a line 30N116W to 
18N111W to 00N130W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-8 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the ridge will slowly weaken through the
weekend, decreasing areal coverage of the fresh to strong trade 
winds north of the ITCZ. Winds will diminish to moderate to 
fresh speeds by the second half of the weekend. Areal coverage 
of seas greater than 8 ft will also decrease the end of the week 
through the weekend.

$$
AL