000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large N swell and NE wind waves:
Large, long-period northerly swell is mixing with shorter period
NE wind waves in an area of strong to near- gale force tradewinds
N of the ITCZ to 18N and W of 123W creating dangerous confused
seas. Seas in this area are peaking near 15 ft. Areal coverage of
seas greater than 12 ft will gradually decrease the end of the
week into the weekend as the swell slowly subsides, and the
tradewinds slowly diminish. Seas are expected to subside below 
12 ft by Saturday. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 07N77W to 04N96W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N96W to 06N126W, then resumes from 07N130W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N 
to 06N between 84W and 90W, and from 06N to 10N between 122W and 
140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A ridge of high pressure extends across the waters off the Baja 
California peninsula and SW Mexico. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate 
to locally fresh winds west of the Baja California peninsula SE 
to near the Revillagigedo Islands and in the entrance to the Gulf
of California. A surface trough is in the northern Gulf of 
California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and trough is
supporting fresh to strong gap winds in the northern Gulf of 
California. Moderate winds are over and downstream the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open 
waters off Mexico. NW swell is producing seas in the 8-11 ft 
range west of the Baja California peninsula southward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico. In the northern Gulf of California, seas are 
in the 4-6 ft range, with seas of 2-4 ft elsewhere in the Gulf. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds will prevail in the 
far northern Gulf of California through Thu. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands and the entrance to the 
Gulf of California will diminish slightly on Thu, with moderate 
winds prevailing thereafter. Light to gentle winds are expected 
elsewhere. Large, long- period northerly swell over the offshore 
waters of Baja California and the Revillagigedo Islands will 
persist through Fri, then gradually subside this weekend. 
 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong gap winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with
moderate winds extending downstream of the Gulf. Seas are in the
6-7 ft range in this area. Moderate to fresh winds are over and
downstream the Gulf of Panama, with seas in the 5-6 ft range.
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, gap winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to
near gale force at night through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to 
strong winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through early 
Sun. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over and downstream of 
Gulf of Panama through Sat night. Elsewhere relatively benign 
conditions will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features Section for information on an 
ongoing large swell event.

A ridge of high pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to
strong trades, locally to near- gale force, N of the ITCZ to 
near 20N and W of 120W. Elsewhere N of the ITCZ, moderate to 
locally fresh winds prevail. South of the ITCZ, light to gentle 
winds are noted. Outside the area of 12 ft seas, seas of 8 ft or 
greater cover the waters W of a line 30N116W to 19N112W to 
00N132W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-8 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, the ridge will slowly weaken through the
weekend, decreasing areal coverage of the fresh to strong trade 
winds will prevail north of the ITCZ. Winds will diminish to
moderate to fresh speeds by early next week. Areal coverage of 
seas greater than 8 ft will also decrease the end of the week 
through the weekend. 

$$
AL