000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072200
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Northerly Swell:
Large, long-period northerly swell continues to propagate
southeastward across the east Pacific. North of 19N, swell has
decayed enough to allow seas to drop below 12 ft this afternoon.
South of 19N, swell continues to sustain seas of 12 to 15 ft 
west of a line from 19N125W to 10N122W. This swell will persist 
from 05N to 18N through Thu before gradually decaying the rest of
the week. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends west-southwestward from 07N77W to 
03N95W. An ITCZ continues westward from 03N95W to 08N126W, and
from 07N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted up to 120 nm along either side of the trough west of 83W, 
and up to 90 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 
A dissipating cold front curves southwestward from near 
Culiacan, Mexico across waters south of Cabo San Lucas to beyond 
17N113W. Patchy showers are occurring near and up to 80 nm east 
of this boundary. Moderate with locally fresh northeasterly gap 
winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas are found at the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and nearby waters. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas 
of 5 to 7 ft are noted in the northern Gulf of California. Fresh
NW winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are present north of the front 
at the Gulf of California entrance. Gentle to moderate NW winds 
and seas at 2 to 3 ft exist elsewhere within the Gulf. Moderate 
to fresh NW to N winds with 8 to 10 ft seas in large NW swell 
are present across the Baja California and Revillagigedo Islands 
offshore waters. For the remaining offshore waters off central 
and southern Mexico, mainly light to gentle winds and seas at 4 
to 6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas at 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec and nearby waters will steadily subside 
through this afternoon. Fresh to strong SW winds will prevail in 
the far northern Gulf of California through Thu. Large, long-
period NW swell over the offshore waters of the Baja California 
Peninsula will spread southward to the Revillagigedo Islands 
today. Seas will gradually subside by the end of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen in
the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. In the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador, gentle to moderate ENE winds are 
present with 3 to 5 ft seas near the coast and 6 to 8 ft seas in
residual N swell farther out. Gentle to moderate southerly winds
and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells dominate waters 
near the Galapagos Islands and west of Ecuador. Light to gentle 
winds with 3 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the offshore 
waters

For the forecast, residual swell generated by the gap winds in 
the Tehuantepec region will sustain rough seas over the outer 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early this 
afternoon. Fresh to strong gap winds in the Papagayo region will 
pulse to near-gale force during the nighttime and early morning 
hours through Fri night. Fresh to strong gap winds will develop 
in the Gulf of Panama by late this afternoon. Conditions at both 
locations will start to improve later this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event.

A dissipating cold front continues southwestward from the 
offshore waters of Revillagigedo Islands across 17N113W to 
145116W. Patchy showers are evident near and up to 80 nm east of
this feature. Farther south, a surface trough is causing
scattered moderate convection from 07N to 11N between 126W and
131W. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from the 
north-central Pacific across 30N140W to near 19N116W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and cold front is supporting 
moderate to fresh winds north of 20N. The pressure gradient 
between the same ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ is sustaining fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ 
to 20N and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate winds generally 
prevail elsewhere. Outside the Significant Swell area mentioned 
in the Special Features section, seas of 8 to 11 ft cover are 
seen up to 150 nm northwest of a line from 20N115W to 13N116W to
07N120W to 00N136W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail north 
of the ITCZ through Fri before diminishing this weekend.

$$

Chan