000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070815
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Feb 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: 
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Gulf
of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific equatorial trough is
supporting gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
seas peaking near 13 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force
this morning as the area of high pressure shifts NE into the
southeastern United States. 

Significant N Swell:
A set of northerly swell is propagating southeastward across the
east Pacific. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters W of a
line from 20N122W to 12N124W to 05N140W, peaking near 15 ft. The
area of 12 ft seas N of 18N will subside below 12 ft today. Seas
greater than 12 ft will continue over the tradewind zone N of 
the ITCZ to near 18N and W of 122W where rough and confused seas 
will prevail as northerly swell mixes with wind waves generated 
by a large area of strong trades. The 12 ft seas over this 
tradewind zone will slowly subside into the weekend as the area 
of strong trades gradually decreases. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 08N79W to 03N96W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N96W to 07N124W, and continues from 07N128W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N
to 07N between 135W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features Section for information on a gale 
warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
 
Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event, a 
cold front is moving across the central waters of the Gulf of 
California, extending SW across Baja California Sur into the 
offshore waters. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are 
N of the front in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft are elsewhere over the Gulf. 
Moderate to fresh winds are west of the Baja California peninsula
N of the front, where seas are in the 7-10 ft range in NW swell.
Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, mainly light to 
gentle winds prevail, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, conditions over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
improve today as the fresh to near- gale force gap winds and very
rough seas over and downstream the Gulf decrease. Fresh to 
strong winds will prevail in the far northern Gulf of California 
through Thu. Large, long- period NW swell over the offshore 
waters of the Baja California peninsula will spread southward to 
the Revillagigedo Islands today. Seas will gradually subside by 
the end of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to moderate gap winds have developed in the Gulf of
Papagayo as well as the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds
are also near the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle 
winds are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range 
over the outer waters off Guatemala and El Salvador, and in the 
4-7 ft range closer to shore, in northerly swell generated by the
Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere, seas 
4-5 ft range prevail.

For the forecast, swell generated by the gap wind event in the 
Tehuantepec region will sustain rough seas over the outer 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through early this 
afternoon. Fresh to strong gap winds in the Papagayo region will
pulse to near gale force at night tonight through Fri night. 
Fresh to strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama 
today. Conditions at both locations will start to improve later 
this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event.

Aside from the large swell, a cold front extends across Baja
California Sur to near 12N122W. A ridge extends SE across the
waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the
cold front is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of 20N. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds 
over the waters N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Gentle to 
moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area 
of 12 ft seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters NW of a 
line from 30N116W to 18N116W to 01N140W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 
ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail N of 
the ITCZ through early the remainder of the week, diminishing
this weekend.

$$
AL