366 
AXPZ20 KNHC 070201
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Feb 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: 
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Gulf
of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific equatorial trough is
supporting gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
seas peaking near 14 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force
early Wed as the area of high pressure shifts NE into the
southeastern United States. Mariners traversing this area tonight
are encouraged to exercise caution and plan their route 
accordingly.

Significant N Swell:
A set of northerly swell is propagating southeastward across the
east Pacific. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters W of a
line from 20N125W to 13N127W to 07N140W. The area of 12 ft seas N
of 18N will subside below 12 ft Wednesday. Seas greater than 12
ft will continue over the tradewind zone N of the ITCZ to near
18N and W of 122W where rough and confused seas will prevail as
northerly swell mixes with wind waves generated by a large area
of strong trades. The 12 ft seas over this tradewind zone will 
slowly subside into the weekend as the area of strong trades 
gradually decreases. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 08N79W to 03N96W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N96W to 08N124W, and continues from 07N128W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 
nm S of the ITCZ W of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features Section for information on a gale 
warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
 
Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event, a 
cold front is moving across the northern waters of the Gulf of
California, extending SW across Baja California Sur into the
offshore waters. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are 
N of the front in the northern Gulf of California. Moderate to
fresh winds are west of the Baja California peninsula N of the
front, where seas are in the 8-10 ft range in NW swell.
Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, mainly gentle winds 
prevail, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Light to gentle winds,
and seas of 3 ft or less, are over the remainder of the Gulf of
California. 

For the forecast, gale-force gap winds and very rough seas will 
persist over and downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec through 
early Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the far
northern Gulf of California through Thu evening. Large, long- 
period NW swell will impact the offshore waters of the Baja 
California peninsula tonight, and spread southward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands Wed. Seas will gradually subside by the end
of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the discussion
area. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the outer waters off
Guatemala and El Salvador, and in the 4-7 ft range closer to
shore, in northerly swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere, seas 4-5 ft range prevail.

For the forecast, swell generated by gale-force gap winds in the
Tehuantepec region will sustain rough seas at the outer offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador until Wed afternoon. Fresh 
to strong gap winds will develop in the Papagayo region late 
tonight, and in the Gulf of Panama on Wed. Conditions at both 
locations should improve later this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event.

Aside from the large swell, a cold front extends across Baja
California Sur to near 11N124W. High pressure is centered NW of 
the area near 34N149W. The pressure gradient between the area of 
high pressure, the cold front, and lower pressure in the vicinity
of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong N to NE winds over the
waters N of the ITCZ and W of and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate 
winds generally prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft 
seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters NW of a line from 
30N116W to 20N117W to 02N140W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-7 ft 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail N of 
the ITCZ as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.

$$
AL