000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061702
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
1605 UTC Tue Feb 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

Updated Offshore Waters sections

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: 
The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure along the
eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific equatorial
trough is supporting gale force gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, where seas are currently peaking near 14 ft. The
gale force winds will continue through tonight, when the area of
high pressure shifts eastward into the SE United States,
loosening the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area. Seas
with this event are forecast to peak near 15-16 ft today. The
leading edge of seas 8 ft or greater is expected to reach near
08N100W by late today. Mariners in the area need to monitor this
situation closely and plan their route accordingly. 

Significant N Swell:
A set of northerly swell is propagating across the NW waters,
producing seas greater than 12 ft over the discussion waters NW
of a line from 30N125W to 09N140W, with seas peaking near 16 ft.
This swell will continue to propagate southward today while
subsiding. Seas greater than 12 ft will cover the waters west of
a line from 30N125W to 13N127W to 04N140W by tonight before 
starting to gradually subside through the remainder of the week.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from 09N79W TO 03N96W. An ITCZ 
continues from 09N79W to 07N123W...and from 07N129W to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 90
nm south of the trough, and up to 120 nm along either side of 
the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features Section for information on a gale 
warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
 
Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event, a 
cold front is moving across the waters off Baja California Norte.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are within 30 nm east 
of the front. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere 
over the remainder of the discussion waters. NW swell off Baja 
California Norte is supporting seas of 7-9 ft. Seas of 5-7 ft 
prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3 ft 
or less are over the Gulf of California, except for the entrance 
to the Gulf where seas are reaching 4 ft.

For the forecast, strong to gale-force gap winds and very rough 
seas will persist at the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Wed 
morning, then improve in the afternoon. Fresh to strong winds 
behind a cold front are expected in the far northern Gulf of 
California through Thu morning. Large, long-period NW swell will 
penetrate further into the offshore waters of Baja California 
Norte today, and enter the waters off Baja California Sur late 
tonight into Wed. Rough seas caused by this swell will persist 
through Fri before improving this weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the discussion
area. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range.

For the forecast, swell generated by gale-force gap winds in the 
Tehuantepec region will bring rough seas to the outer offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador until Wed afternoon. Fresh 
to strong gap winds along with rough seas will develop in the 
Papagayo region late tonight, and in the Gulf of Panama on Wed. 
Conditions at both locations should improve later this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event.

Aside from the large swell, a cold front enters the discussion
waters near 30N117W to 20N121W to 10N140W. High pressure is 
centered NW of the area near 34N149W. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure and the cold front is 
supporting fresh to strong N to NE winds over the waters N of the
cold front and W of 128W. Gentle to moderate winds generally 
prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas, seas
greater than 8 ft cover the waters NW of a line from 30N117W to
09N130W to 03N140W. Elsewhere, seas of 6-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will develop N of 
the ITCZ today as high pressure builds over the area in the wake
of the front.

$$

Chan