000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Feb 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure has built across eastern Mexico/western Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this are of high pressure and the eastern north Pacific equatorial trough is supporting gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are currently peaking near 12 ft. The gale force winds will continue through Tue night, when the area of high pressure shifts eastward into the SE United States, loosening the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area. Seas with this event are forecast to peak near 15 ft on Tue. The leading edge of seas 8 ft or greater is expected to reach near 08N100W by late Tue. Mariners in the area need to monitor this situation closely and plan their route accordingly. Significant N Swell: A set of northerly swell is propagating across the NW waters, producing seas greater than 12 ft over the discussion waters NW of a line from 30N125W to 11N140W, with seas peaking near 18 ft. This swell will continue to propagate southward through Tue while subsiding. Seas greater than 12 ft will cover the waters west of a line from 30N125W to 15N127W to 05N140W by Tue night before starting to gradually subside through the remainder of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 08N78W to 05N85W to 05N105W. The ITCZ continues from 05N105W to 07N124W to beyond 04N140W. There is no significant convection noted. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for information on a gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event, a cold front is moving across the waters off Baja California Norte. Moderate southerly winds are within 30 nm east of the front. A 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 22N116W, with associated ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate winds off Baja California Sur as well as the entrance to the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. NW swell off Baja California Norte is supporting seas of 7-10 ft. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California, except for the entrance to the Gulf where seas are reaching 4 ft. For the forecast, an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event, along with very rough seas, will continue through Tue night. Conditions in the Tehuantepec region will improve Wed. Fresh to strong SW to W winds behind a cold front are expected in the far northern Gulf of California from early Tue morning through Thu morning. Large, long- period NW swell will enter the offshore waters of Baja California Norte on Tue, and Baja California Sur on Wed. Rough seas caused by this swell will persist through Fri before improving this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Gentle to moderate winds are just offshore Central America from Panama to Guatemala. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range in long- period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, swell generated from a gale force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will bring rough seas to the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Tue and Wed. Fresh to strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night, and in the Gulf of Panama on Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing large swell event. Aside from the large swell, a cold front enters the discussion waters near 30N118W to 19N125W to 11N140W. High pressure is centered NW of the area near 34N149W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure, and the cold front is supporting fresh to strong N to NE winds over the waters N of the cold front and W of 128W. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail W of 110W, with mainly light to gentle winds E of 110W. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas discussed above, seas of 6-9 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will develop N of the ITCZ Tuesday as high pressure builds over the area in the wake of the front. $$ AL