000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: 
A 1024 mb high moving from northern Mexico into the Gulf of
Mexico will channel fresh to strong northerly winds through the
Chivela Pass in southern Mexico. In response, northerly gap 
winds at the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach near-gale to gale- 
force this evening, and then persist until late Tuesday night. 
Seas under these winds are expected to peak between 15 and 17 ft.
As the high shifts to the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wed, both 
winds and seas at the Gulf of Tehuantepec will gradually subside.
Marine interests in the area need to monitor this situation 
closely and plan their route accordingly. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details

Significant NW Swell:
Large, long-period NW swell produced by fresh to strong winds off
the U.S. west coast are propagating southeastward across the 
tropical eastern Pacific. This swell will cause very rough seas 
of 12 to 18 ft west of a line from 30N123W to 23N120W to 03N140W 
through Thu evening. Sea should gradually subside starting Fri as
this swell steadily decay.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from 09N79W to 04N90W to 05N105W. 
Widely scattered showers are present near up to 50 nm south of 
the trough east of 94W. An ITCZ extends from 05N105W to 07N123W, 
then from 07N126W to beyond 140W at 04N. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen up to 50 nm along either side of the first
ITCZ segment, and up to 130 nm north, and 80 nm south of the
second segment.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features Section for information on a gale 
warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
 
A ridge extends from 1017 mb high pressure centered near 26N115W
to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting fresh to 
strong winds off Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between 
the area of high pressure and deep low pressure off the coast of 
California is supporting moderate to fresh winds NW of Guadalupe
Island. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the open 
waters off Mexico. Moderate winds are over the southern Gulf of 
California, with light to gentle winds over the northern half. NW
swell continues to prevail across much of the discussion waters,
with seas in the 8-12 ft range NW of Guadalupe Island and seas 
of 7-9 ft elsewhere over the open waters. Seas in the Gulf of 
California are 3 ft or less, except for the entrance to the Gulf 
where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. 

For the forecast, rough seas off SW Mexico will subside this 
morning. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 
expected to begin today, with gale force winds developing during 
the afternoon hours and continuing through Tue night. Fresh to 
strong SW winds will develop in the far northern Gulf of 
California late tonight through late Wed night. A new set of 
northwest swell will enter the waters offshore Baja California 
Norte on Tue, then spread across the remainder Baja California 
waters through the end of the week while subsiding. Conditions 
will start to improve the middle to end of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to moderate winds are just offshore Guatemala and El
Salvador. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range in long-period south to southwest swell. 

For the forecast, relatively quiet conditions will prevail 
today. A gale force gap wind event is forecast to begin in the 
Tehuantepec region this afternoon. Swell generated from this gap 
wind event will bring rough seas to the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador Tue and Wed. Fresh to strong gap winds 
will develop in the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night, and in the Gulf 
of Panama on Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event.

Aside from the large swell, a cold front extends from deep low 
pressure off the coast of California entering the discussion 
waters near 30N120W to 25N124W to 14N140W. High pressure is 
centered NW of the area near 34N149W. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure, and the cold front extending 
from deep low pressure off California is supporting fresh to 
strong northerly winds over the waters N of the cold front and W 
of 135W. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail W of 110W, 
with mainly light to gentle winds E of 110W. Aside from the area 
of 12 ft seas discussed above, seas of 6-9 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will develop N of 
the ITCZ early this week as high pressure builds over the area in
the wake of the front.

$$

Chan