204 
AXPZ20 KNHC 051608
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Feb 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin today as high 
pressure builds across eastern Mexico behind a deepening low 
pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico. The tight pressure gradient 
in the Gulf of Mexico as well as between the area of high 
pressure and lower pressure within the eastern Pacific equatorial
trough will induce gap winds through the Chivela pass into the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will rapidly strengthen this 
afternoon and reach gale force by the late afternoon. The gale 
force winds will continue through Tue night, when the area of 
high pressure shifts eastward into the SE United States, 
loosening the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area. Seas
with this event are forecast to peak near 15 ft on Tue. The 
leading edge of seas 8 ft or greater is expected to reach near 
08N100W by late Tue. Mariners planning on transiting through the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this upcoming gap wind 
event, and have an avoidance plan to keep away from potentially 
hazardous marine conditions that can arise from such an event. 

Large Area of High Seas: A set of northerly swell is propagating
across the NW waters, producing seas greater than 12 ft over the
discussion waters NW of a line from 30N120W to 19N140W, with 
seas peaking near 20 ft. This swell will continue to propagate 
southward through Tue while subsiding. Seas greater than 12 ft 
will cover the waters west of a line from 30N125W to 15N127W to 
05N140W by Tue night before starting to gradually subside through
the remainder of the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on
these special features.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from Panama to 05N101W. Widely 
scattered showers are present up to 60 nm along either side of
this trough. The ITCZ extends from 5N101W across 07N120W to 
beyond 03N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen up 
to 150 nm north and 80 nm south of the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features Section for information on a gale 
warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
 
A ridge extends from 1017 mb high pressure centered near 26N115W
to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting fresh to 
strong winds off Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between 
the area of high pressure and deep low pressure off the coast of 
California is supporting moderate to fresh winds NW of Guadalupe
Island. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the open 
waters off Mexico. Moderate winds are over the southern Gulf of 
California, with light to gentle winds over the northern half. NW
swell continues to prevail across much of the discussion waters,
with seas in the 8-12 ft range NW of Guadalupe Island and seas 
of 7-9 ft elsewhere over the open waters. Seas in the Gulf of 
California are 3 ft or less, except for the entrance to the Gulf 
where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. 

For the forecast, rough seas off SW Mexico will subside this 
morning. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 
expected to begin today, with gale force winds developing during 
the afternoon hours and continuing through Tue night. Fresh to 
strong SW winds will develop in the far northern Gulf of 
California late tonight through late Wed night. A new set of 
northwest swell will enter the waters offshore Baja California 
Norte on Tue, then spread across the remainder Baja California 
waters through the end of the week while subsiding. Conditions 
will start to improve the middle to end of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to moderate winds are just offshore Guatemala and El
Salvador. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range in long-period south to southwest swell. 

For the forecast, relatively quiet conditions will prevail 
today. A gale force gap wind event is forecast to begin in the 
Tehuantepec region this afternoon. Swell generated from this gap 
wind event will bring rough seas to the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador Tue and Wed. Fresh to strong gap winds 
will develop in the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night, and in the Gulf 
of Panama on Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event.

Aside from the large swell, a cold front extends from deep low 
pressure off the coast of California entering the discussion 
waters near 30N120W to 25N124W to 14N140W. High pressure is 
centered NW of the area near 34N149W. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure, and the cold front extending 
from deep low pressure off California is supporting fresh to 
strong northerly winds over the waters N of the cold front and W 
of 135W. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail W of 110W, 
with mainly light to gentle winds E of 110W. Aside from the area 
of 12 ft seas discussed above, seas of 6-9 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will develop N of 
the ITCZ early this week as high pressure builds over the area in
the wake of the front.

$$
Chan