000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050210
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Feb 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin on Mon as high
pressure builds across eastern Mexico behind a deepening low
pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico. The tight pressure gradient
in the Gulf of Mexico as well as between the area of high
pressure and lower pressure within the eastern Pacific equatorial
trough will induce gap winds through the Chivela pass into the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will rapidly strengthen Mon afternoon
and reach gale force by the late afternoon. The gale force winds
will continue through Tue night, when the area of high pressure
shifts eastward into the SE United States, loosening the 
pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area. Seas with this 
event are forecast to peak near 15 ft on Tue. The leading edge of
seas 8 ft or greater is expected to reach near 08N100W by late 
Tue. Mariners planning on transiting through the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec next week should be aware of this upcoming gap wind 
event, and have an avoidance plan to keep away from potentially 
hazardous marine conditions that can arise from such an event. 

Large Area of High Seas: A set of northerly swell is propagating
across the NW waters, producing seas greater than 12 ft over the
discussion waters NW of a line from 30N120W to 19N140W, with 
seas peaking near 20 ft. This swell will continue to propagate 
east to southeastward through tonight, then S from Mon through 
Tue while subsiding. Seas greater than 12 ft will cover the 
waters west of a line from 30N125W to 15N127W to 05N140W by Tue 
night before starting to gradually subside through the remainder 
of the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on
these special features.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
08N78W to 06N87W to 06N105W. The ITCZ extends from 06N105W to 
07N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 84W and 96W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm N of the ITCZ
between 132W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features Section for information on a gale 
warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
 
A ridge extends from 1016 mb high pressure centered near 26N115W
to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting fresh to
strong winds off Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and deep low pressure off the coast of
California is supporting fresh to strong winds NW of Guadalupe
Island. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center.
Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico. Moderate winds are over the southern Gulf of
California, with light to gentle winds over the northern half. NW
swell continues to prevail across much of the discussion waters,
with seas in the 8-12 ft range NW of Guadalupe Island and seas of
7-9 ft elsewhere over the open waters. Seas in the Gulf of
California are 3 ft or less, except for the entrance to the Gulf
where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. 

For the forecast, rough seas will continue across the waters off
the Baja California peninsula and then across the waters off SW 
Mexico tonight into early Mon. The next gap wind event in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin Mon, with gale force 
winds developing during the afternoon hours and continuing 
through Tue night. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop in the 
far northern Gulf of California late Mon night through late Wed 
night. A new set of northwest swell will enter the waters 
offshore Baja California Norte on Tue, then spread across the 
remainder Baja California waters through the end of the week 
while subsiding. Conditions will start to improve the middle to 
end of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to moderate winds are just offshore Guatemala and El
Salvador. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range in long-period south to southwest swell. 

For the forecast, relatively quiet conditions will prevail into 
early next week. A gale force gap wind event is forecast to begin
in the Tehuantepec region Mon afternoon. Swell generated from 
this gap wind event will bring rough seas to the outer offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Tue and Wed. Fresh to strong 
gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night, and in 
the Gulf of Panama on Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event.

Aside from the large swell, a cold front extends from deep low 
pressure off the coast of California entering the discussion 
waters near 30N121W to 24N126W to 15N140W. High pressure is 
centered NW of the area near 36N150W. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure, and the cold front extending
from low pressure off California is supporting fresh to strong 
winds northerly winds over the waters N of the cold front and W
of 135W. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail W of 110W,
with mainly light to gentle winds E of 110W. Aside from the area
of 12 ft seas discussed above, seas greater than 8 ft cover the
waters NW of a line from 13N101W to 00N120W. Seas of 6-7 ft are
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, seas will start to subside below 8 ft tonight.
Fresh to strong trade winds will develop N of the ITCZ early 
this week as high pressure builds over the area in the wake of 
the front.

$$
AL