000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042316 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2316 UTC Sun Feb 04 2024 Updated Remainder of Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin on Mon as high pressure builds across eastern Mexico behind a deepening low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico. The tight pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico as well as between the area of high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern Pacific equatorial trough will induce gap winds through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting as fresh to strong north to northeast winds early Mon, then rapidly strengthening to gale force Mon afternoon. The gale force winds will continue through Tue night, when the area of high pressure shifts eastward into the SE United States, loosening the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area. Seas with this event are forecast to peak near 17 ft on Tue. The leading edge of seas 8 ft or greater is expected to reach near 09N99W by late Tue. Mariners planning on transiting through the Gulf of Tehuantepec next week should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and have an avoidance plan to keep away from potentially hazardous marine conditions that can arise from such an event. Large Area of High Seas: An extensive set of northwest swell is producing seas greater than 12 ft over the discussion waters NW of a line from 30N163W to 14N131W to 06N140W, with seas peaking near 16 ft. This swell has been generated by a large area of near gale force to gale force winds between high pressure over the north central Pacific and low pressure that is well N of the area. Storm strength winds N of the area continue to produce large northerly swell that will continue to propagate into the discussion waters with a period of 12-14 sec. The swell will continue to propagate east to southeastward through tonight, then S from Mon through Tue while subsiding. These seas will cover the western half of the area west of a line from 30N125W to 15N127W to 05N140W by Tue night before subsiding below 12 ft late in the week over the far west central waters. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on these special features. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 06N90W to 05N99W to 06N105W. The ITCZ extends from 06N105W to 06N121W to 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 85W-91W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 90W-93W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for information on a gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The earlier fresh to strong west to northwest winds near the coast of of Oaxaca are mostly at fresh speeds per the latest ASCAT data pass over that area. The same ASCAT data pass shows fresh to strong northwest to north winds along and within about 60 nm offshore Cabo Corrientes. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere over the open waters off SW Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters. Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of California. Subsiding northwest swell is producing seas of 8 to 10 ft over the waters off the Baja California peninsula extending to the waters off SW Mexico. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted over the offshore waters of southern Mexico. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, rough seas will continue across the waters off the Baja California peninsula and then across the waters off SW Mexico tonight into early Mon. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin Mon, with gale force winds developing during the afternoon hours and continuing through Tue night. Low pressure over the region of Oaxaca will bring fresh to strong SW winds along the coast with seas to 7 ft tonight into Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop in the far northern Gulf of California late Mon night through late Wed night. A new set of northwest swell will begin to move through the waters offshore Baja California Norte on Tue, then across the remainder Baja California waters through the end of the week while subsiding. Otherwise, high pressure over the area will maintain relatively quiet conditions from midweek onward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Gentle to moderate winds are just offshore Guatemala and El Salvador, as well as in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range due to long-period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, relatively quiet conditions will prevail into early next week. Looking ahead to next week, a gale force gap wind event is forecast to begin in the Tehuantepec region Mon afternoon. Swell generated from this gap wind event will bring rough seas to the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Tue and Wed. Fresh to strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night of the upcoming week, and in the Gulf of Panama on Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Updated See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing large swell event. Aside from the large swell, high pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 25N116W. A cold front extends from 30N125W to 24N130W to 16N140W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the low is supporting fresh to strong south to southwest east of the front to 121W and north of about 26N, with seas of 10-14 ft. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate winds north of the ITCZ to near 12N and west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters north of 02N and west of 120W as well as north of a line from 02N120W to 13N104W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-8 ft range. For the forecast, seas greater than 8 ft will continue to spread southeastward covering much of the waters north of the equator and west of 110W tonight before subsiding. Fresh to strong northeast trade winds will spread across the waters west of a line from 12N123W to 04N140W into early next week as relatively strong high pressure builds over the area in the wake of the front. $$ Aguirre