546 AXPZ20 KNHC 041601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Feb 04 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning and Large NW swell: A set of NW swell is producing seas greater than 12 ft over the discussion waters NW of a line from 30N123W to 22N140W, with seas peaking near 17 ft. This swell has been generated by a large area of near gale force to gale force winds between high pressure over the north central Pacific and low pressure well N of the area. At 12Z, the synoptic pattern has a 1017 mb high pressure centered near 37N151W, an area of low pressure centered near 33N129W, and a 1017 mb high pressure center near 23N123W. A cold front extends from the low into the area near 30N127W to 20N140W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure near 37N151W and the area of low pressure is supporting near gale to gale- force winds over the discussion waters N of 28N between 130W and 134W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure near 27N118W and the low is supporting near-gale to gale force winds over the discussion waters within 60 nm east of the cold front N of 26N. Winds N of the area have reached storm force west of the low, and continue to produce large northerly swell which will propagate into the discussion waters. The gale force winds will lift N of the area today as the low moves northward and further from the area. During this time, the 12 ft or greater seas will continue to spread S and E today, then S from Mon through Tue while subsiding. These seas will cover much of the waters N of 06N and W of 130W by Tue evening before subsiding below 12 ft late Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin on Mon as high pressure builds across eastern Mexico behind a deepening low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico. The tight pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico as well as between the area of high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern Pacific equatorial trough will induce gap winds through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will rapidly strengthen Mon afternoon and reach gale force by the late afternoon. The gale force winds will continue through Tue night, when the area of high pressure shifts eastward into the SE United States, loosening the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area. Seas with this event are forecast to peak near 15 ft on Tue. The leading edge of seas 8 ft or greater is expected to reach near 08N100W by late Tue. Mariners planning on transiting through the Gulf of Tehuantepec next week should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and have an avoidance plan to keep away from potentially hazardous marine conditions that can arise from such an event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on these special features. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 08N78W to 06N91W. The ITCZ extends from 06N91W to 06N120W to 05N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm south of the trough between 85W-91W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 87W-93W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for information on a gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds prevail off the coast of Oaxaca. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere over the open waters off SW Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters. Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of California. Subsiding NW swell is producing seas of 8 to 10 ft over the waters off the Baja California peninsula extending to the waters off SW Mexico. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted over the offshore waters of southern Mexico. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, rough seas will continue across the waters off the Baja California peninsula and then across the waters off SW Mexico today. Low pressure over the region of Oaxaca will bring fresh to strong SW winds along the coast with seas to 7 ft today. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin Mon, with gale- force winds developing during the afternoon hours, and continuing through Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Gentle to moderate winds are just offshore Guatemala and El Salvador, as well as in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, relatively quiet conditions will prevail into early next week. Looking ahead to next week, a gale force gap wind event is forecast to begin in the Tehuantepec region Mon afternoon. Swell generated from this gap wind event will bring rough seas to the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Tue and Wed. Fresh to strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night of the upcoming week, and in the Gulf of Panama on Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing large swell event and a gale warning for the NW part of the area. Aside from the large swell, and gale force winds, high pressure of 1016 mb is centered near 26N117W. A cold front extends from 30N127W to 20N140W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the low is supporting fresh to strong winds within 180 nm east of the front outside the southerly gale winds described above under SPECIAL FEATURES. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate winds N of the ITCZ to near 12N and W of 110W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 02N and W of 120W as well as N of a line from 02N120W to 13N104W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-8 ft range. For the forecast, seas greater than 8 ft will continue to spread southeastward covering much of the waters N of the equator and W of 110W tonight before subsiding. Fresh to strong winds will spread across the waters N of 10N and W of 130W into early next week. High pressure building in the wake of the front will then support fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ to near 15N and W of 125W through much of the week. $$ Aguirre