000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032245 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2245 UTC Sat Feb 03 2024 Updated forecast for Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning and Large NW swell: Large NW swell with a period of 14 to 16 seconds is moving across the E Pacific open waters. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters NW of a line from 30N125W to 26N130W to 24N140W, with seas peaking to 13 ft. These 12 ft seas are starting to be reinforced by a new set of large NW swell in the wake of a cold front that extends from 30N133W to 24N140W. The reinforced swell will build seas to a peak of near 20 ft Sun night. Aside from the seas, a recent ASCAT data pass depicted near gale to gale force winds ahead of the front to near 127W, and strong to near gale force NW to N winds behind the front. Winds behind the front will reach gale-force by early this evening. The 12 ft or greater seas will continue to spread S and E through Sun, then S from Mon through Tue while subsiding. These seas will cover much of the waters N of 06N and W of 130W by Tue evening before subsiding below 12 ft late Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin on Mon as broad cyclonic flow sets up over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake a low pressure system. This will help induce northerly flow across southeastern Mexico and into the Gulf of Tehuantepec region as fresh to strong winds beginning early Mon before quickly increasing to gale-force speeds early on Mon afternoon. Model guidance indicates that these winds will last through late Tue, but before then, they will expand in coverage, reaching as far S as near 13N96W. Seas with this event are forecast to peak at about 16 ft on Tue. The leading edge of seas 8 ft or greater is expected to reach near 08N100W by late Tue. Mariners planning on transiting through the Gulf of Tehuantepec next week should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and have an avoidance plan to keep away from potentially hazardous marine conditions that can arise from such an event. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 08N78W to 06N91W. The ITCZ extends from 06N91W to 06N112W to 05N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 124W-128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing large swell event and on a gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-4 ft are over the central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft, are over the remainder of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 9-12 ft due to large NW swell are west of Baja California Norte, and seas of 8-11 ft are west of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-8 ft due to long-period NW swell prevail over much of the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, rough seas will continue across the waters off the Baja California peninsula, and then across the waters off SW Mexico through the rest of the weekend. Low pressure over the region of Oaxaca will bring fresh to strong SW winds along the coast with seas to 7 ft through Sun. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin Mon, with gale- force winds possibly developing during the afternoon hours, and continuing through Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Updated Light W to NW winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region, with seas of 3-5 ft in due to long-period S to SW swell. Light and variable winds are in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 3-5 ft also due to moderate winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama, with seas in the 3-5 ft range also due to long- period S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft due to long- period S to SW swell prevail. For the forecast, the light W to NW winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will change little through Tue, then become fresh to strong NE to E winds Tue night through Thu night, except increasing to near gale late Wed night. The light and variable winds in the Gulf of Panama will become light S winds on Sun, and change little through Tue. Starting Tue night, these winds become fresh N to NE winds and fresh to strong winds Wed through Thu night as they expand southward. Seas in the Gulf of Panama will be 4-6 ft, building to 5-7 ft Wed and 6-8 ft Wed night through Thu night. Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions will prevail into early next week. Looking ahead to next week, swell that will be generated from the forecast Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will bring rough seas to the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Tue through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing large swell event and a gale warning for the NW part of the area. Aside from the large swell, high pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 28N120W. A couple of cold fronts are over the far NW waters. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the cold front is supporting fresh to strong winds outside the southerly gale winds described above under SPECIAL FEATURES, E to near 127W and N of 24N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 18N and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 06N and W of 120W as well as N of 15N between 113W and 120W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-8 ft range. For the forecast, seas greater than 8 ft will continue to spread southeastward covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by tonight before subsiding. Low pressure with associated the second cold front that has recently dropped to just SE of 30N140W will shift ENE, with fresh to strong winds ahead and behind the front outside the gale force winds as described above in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. These winds will reach as far E as 122W and N of about 23N on Sun and behind the front as far S as 18N and west of 137W. $$ Aguirre