000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Feb 03 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning and Large NW swell: Large NW swell with a period of 14 to 16 seconds is moving across the E Pacific open waters. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of 20N between 116W and 132W, and N of 28N between 132W and 140W, with seas peaking near 13 ft. These 12 ft seas will subside below 12 ft by early this afternoon, however, a new set of large NW swell will enter the far NW waters behind a front over the NW waters today. Seas with this next swell will peak near 20 ft Sun night. Aside from the seas, gale-force winds will develop ahead of and behind the front N of 29N today and Sun. The 12 ft seas will spread S and E while subsiding. The 12 ft or greater seas will cover much of the waters N of 06N and W of 130W by Tue evening before subsiding below 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 08N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 05N101W to 04N111W to 05N118W to 05N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 124W-128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing large swell event. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found over the central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft, are over the remainder of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 9-13 ft due to large NW swell are west of Baja California Norte, and seas of 8-11 ft are west of Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-8 ft due to long- period NW swell, prevail over much of the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, large NW swell west of Baja California Norte will subside below 12 ft by early this afternoon, but rough seas will continue across the waters off the Baja California peninsula and then across the waters off SW Mexico through the weekend. Low pressure will develop over the region of Oaxaca this morning, which will bring fresh to strong SW winds along the coast with seas to 7 ft through Sun. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin Mon, with gale- force winds possibly developing during the afternoon hours, and continuing through Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are light and variable in the Gulf of Papagayo region, with seas of 3-5 ft in due to long-period S to SW swell. Light to gentle S winds are in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 3-5 ft also due to moderate winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama, with seas in the 3-5 ft range also due to long-period S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft due to long-period S to SW swell prevail. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to light to gentle speeds today. Otherwise, quiescent conditions will prevail into early next week. Looking ahead to next week, a gale- force gap wind event is forecast to begin in the Tehuantepec region Mon afternoon. Swell generated from this gap wind event will bring rough seas to the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Tue and Wed. Fresh to strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Papagayo next Tuesday, and in the Gulf of Panama next Wednesday. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing large swell event and a gale warning. Aside from the large swell, high pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 26N122W. A couple of cold fronts are over the far NW waters. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the cold front is supporting fresh to strong winds within 60 nm east of the front. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 180N and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 06N and W of 120W as well as N of 15N between 113W and 120W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-8 ft range. For the forecast, seas greater than 8 ft will spread SE today, covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by tonight before subsiding. Low pressure with associated cold front over the far NW waters will shift eastward with fresh to strong winds ahead and behind the front. The front will usher in another set of large NW swell, with gale force winds expected over the waters N of 29N as discussed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above. $$ Aguirre