000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030809
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning and Large NW swell: Large NW swell with a period of
14 to 16 seconds is moving across the E Pacific open waters. 
Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of 20N between 116W
and 132W, and N of 28N between 132W and 140W, with seas peaking 
near 13 ft. These 12 ft seas will subside below 12 ft this
morning. However, a new set of large NW swell will enter the far
NW waters behind a front over the NW waters today. Seas with this
next swell will peak near 20 ft Sun night. Aside from the seas, 
gale- force winds will develop ahead of and behind the front N of
29N today and Sun. The 12 ft seas will spread S and E while 
subsiding. The 12 ft or greater seas will cover much of the 
waters N of 06N and W of 130W by Tue evening before subsiding 
below 12 ft.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
08N78W to 06N99W. The ITCZ continues from 06N99W to beyond 
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 05N between
92W and 98W, and within 30 nm either side of the ITCZ between 
119W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event. 
 
Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are found over the
central Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas 
of 2-4 ft, are over the remainder of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh 
winds are west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 11-13 
ft are west of Baja California Norte, and seas of 8-11 ft are 
noted west of Baja Califonria Sur. Gentle to moderate winds, and 
seas of 5-8 ft, prevail over much of the remainder of the open 
waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, large NW swell west of Baja California Norte 
will subside below 12 ft this morning, but rough seas will 
continue across the waters off the Baja California peninsula and 
then across the waters off SW Mexico through the weekend. Low 
pressure will develop over the region of Oaxaca this morning, 
which will bring fresh to strong SW winds along the coast with 
seas to 7 ft through Sun. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is expected to begin Mon, with gale- force winds 
possibly developing during the afternoon hours, and continuing 
through Tue night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region, where
seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Moderate winds prevail in the Gulf
of Panama, with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are found between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of
4-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of Panama
will diminish to light to gentle speeds today. Otherwise, 
quiescent conditions will prevail into early next week. Looking 
ahead to next week, a gale- force gap wind event is forecast to 
begin in the Tehuantepec region Mon afternoon. Swell generated 
from this gap wind event will bring rough seas to the outer 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Tue and Wed. Fresh 
to strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Papagayo next 
Tuesday, and in the Gulf of Panama next Wednesday.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event and a gale warning. 

Aside from the large swell, high pressure of 1020 mb is centered
near 25N126W. A cold front is over the far NW waters. The 
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the cold 
front is supporting fresh to strong winds within 60 nm east of 
the front. The pressure gradient between the area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and
W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from 
the area of 12 ft seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N
of 06N and W of 120W as well as N of 15N between 113W and 120W. 
Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-8 ft range. 

For the forecast, seas greater than 8 ft will spread SE today, 
covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by tonight 
before subsiding. Low pressure with associated cold front over 
the far NW waters will shift eastward with fresh to strong winds 
ahead and behind the front. The front will usher in another set 
of large NW swell, with gale force winds expected over the waters
N of 29N as discussed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above. 

$$
AL