000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030222
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Feb 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning and Large NW swell: Large NW swell with a period of
14 to 16 seconds is moving across the E Pacific open waters. 
Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of 19N and W of 116W,
with seas peaking near 15 ft. These 12 ft seas will subside
tonight, and by Sat morning seas associated with this swell will
subside below 12 ft. However, early on Sat, a new set of large 
NW swell will enter the far NW waters behind a front over the NW 
waters. Seas with the next swell will peak near 20 ft Sun night. 
Aside from the seas, gale- force winds will develop ahead of and 
behind the front N of 29N Sat night and Sun. The 12 ft seas will
spread S and E while subsiding. The 12 ft or greater seas will 
cover much of the waters N of 06N and W of 130W by Tue evening 
before subsiding below 12 ft.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
08N78W to 08N84W to 06N101W. The ITCZ continues from 06N101W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 05N
between 92W and 97W, and within 30 nm either side of the ITCZ
between 115W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event. 
 
Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are found over the
northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 2-4 ft, are over the remainder of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 11-14 ft, are west of Baja California Norte. 
Moderate winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are noted west of Baja
Califonria Sur. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, 
prevail over much of the remainder of the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, large NW swell west of Baja California Norte 
will subside below 12 ft Sat morning, but rough seas will 
continue across the waters off the Baja California peninsula and 
then across the waters off SW Mexico through the weekend. Low 
pressure will develop over the region of Oaxaca early Sat 
morning, which will bring fresh to strong SW winds along the 
coast with seas to 7 ft through Sun. The next gap wind event in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin Mon, with gale- 
force winds possibly developing during the afternoon hours, and 
continuing through Tue night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region, where
seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds prevail 
in the Gulf of Panama, with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate NE winds in the Papagayo region will 
diminish to light to gentle speeds tonight. Gentle to moderate 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to light to gentle 
speeds on Sat. Looking ahead, a gale-force gap wind event is 
forecast to begin in the Tehuantepec region Mon afternoon. Swell
generated from this gap wind event will bring rough seas to the 
outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Tue and Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event and a gale warning. 

Aside from the large swell, high pressure of 1020 mb is centered
near 25N128W. A cold front has just enetered the far NW waters.
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the
cold front is supporting fresh to strong winds within 60 nm east
of the front. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 18N and
W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from
the area of 12 ft seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N
of 07N and W of 120W as well as N of 15N between 115W and 120W.
Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-8 ft range. 

For the forecast, seas greater than 8 ft will spread SE through
the first half of the weekend, covering much of the waters N of
05N and W of 110W by Sat night before subsiding. Low pressure with
associated cold front over the far NW waters will shift eastward
with fresh to strong winds ahead and behind the front. The front
will usher in another set of large NW swell, with gale force
winds expected over the waters N of 29N as discussed in the 
SPECIAL FEATURES section above. 

$$
AL