000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022130
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning and Large NW swell: Large NW swell with a period of
10 to 15 seconds is moving across the E Pacific open waters N of
18N, with peak seas to 15 ft. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the 
waters N of 18N and W of 116W. These 12 ft seas will continue to 
propagate SE while gradually subsiding. By Sat morning, seas 
associated with this swell will subside below 12 ft. However, 
early on Sat, a cold front will enter the NW waters bringing a 
new set of NW swell with 12-14 ft seas over the far NW waters. 
Aside from the seas, strong to near gale-force winds will 
accompany this front, thus affecting the waters N of 20N ahead 
and behind the front. A tighter pressure gradient will develop as
the front extends from 30N130W to 20N140W Sat night, which will
lead to brief gales ahead and behind the front N of 27N through
Sun morning. Seas will peak near 19 ft with the strongest winds 
on Sat night. The 12 ft seas will spread S and E, covering much 
of the waters N of 14N and W of 120W by Sun night and reaching to
03N Tue evening before starting to subside. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
07N78W to 06N83W to 05N91W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 
05N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is off
the coast of Colombia and Ecuador from 01S to 09N E of 86W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 
 
A surface trough extends across the southern Gulf of California 
into Baja California Sur, then SW to near 20N122W. Large NW 
swell, with seas of 8-14 ft follows the trough, affecting the 
Baja Peninsula offshore waters N of Cabo San Lucas this afternoon.
The trough also supports moderate to fresh winds along the Gulf 
of California where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. Moderate to 
fresh NW winds prevail W of the Baja California peninsula, 
including the entrance of the Gulf of California and Jalisco
offshore waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 
5-6 ft, prevail in mixed S and NW swell. 

For the forecast, the surface trough will dissipate tonight near
Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Large NW swell will subside below 12 ft
Sat morning, but will continue to spread rough seas to 10 ft 
across the waters off the Baja California peninsula and then 
across the waters off SW Mexico through the weekend. A low
pressure will develop over the region of Oaxaca early Sat 
morning, which will lead to the development of fresh to strong SW
winds along the coast with seas to 7 ft continuing through Sun. 
The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected 
early next week, with gale force winds possible starting Mon 
night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region,
where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-6 ft continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama, reaching
as far as 02N. Over the offshore waters between the coast of
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate
from the south with 5-6 ft seas in SW swell. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds this afternoon.
Moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to
gentle to moderate this evening. Otherwise, gentle breezes and 
moderate S to SW swell is forecast for the region the remainder
weekend into Mon evening.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event. 

A surface trough extends from Baja California Sur SW to near 
21N121W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted behind the trough N 
of 20N, and westward to near 130W. Large NW swell continues to
propagate SE in the wake of the trough. Aside from the area of 
12 ft seas discussed above, seas greater than 8 ft cover the 
waters NW of a line from Baja California Norte to near 10N140W. 
High pressure of 1021 mb is centered N of the front near 
24N133W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 15N and W of 130W. Gentle to 
moderate winds are found elsewhere across the waters, with seas 
in the 5-7 ft. 

For the forecast, seas greater than 8 ft will spread SE through
the first half of the weekend, covering much of the waters N of
05N and W of 110W by Sat night before subsiding. Low pressure
will approach the NW waters Fri, with associated cold front
approaching the NW waters Fri evening. Fresh to strong winds are
expected ahead and behind the front. The front will usher in
another set of large NW swell, as discussed in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section above. The area low pressure will strengthen
while moving eastward near 31N. This could bring gale force 
winds into the forecast waters by late Sat afternoon or Sat 
evening.

$$
Ramos