000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021556
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell with a period of 10 to 16 seconds is moving 
across the E Pacific open waters N of 20N, with peak seas to 16 
ft per recent altimeter data. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the 
waters N of 20N and W of 115W. These 12 ft seas will continue to
slowly propagate SE while subsiding. By Sat, seas associated 
with this swell will subside below 12 ft. Also early on Sat, a 
new cold front will enter the NW waters bringing a new set of NW 
swell with seas 12 ft or greater over the far NW waters. Seas 
will peak near 18 ft with this swell on Sat night. The 12 ft seas
will spread S and E, covering much of the waters N of 08N and W 
of 128W by Tue night before starting to subside below 12 ft. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
06N77W to 03N84W to 05N92W. The ITCZ continues from 05N98W to 
06N120W to beyond 03N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador from 01S to
06N E of 82W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to
07N between 82W and 92W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 
 
The remnants of a cold front, analyzed as a surface trough are
moving across the central Gulf of California into Baja 
California Sur, then SW to near 21N121W. Large NW swell, with 
seas of 8-14 ft follows the trough, affecting the Baja Peninsula
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro this morning. The trough
also supports fresh to strong W to NW winds over the Gulf of 
California waters N of 26N, where seas are in the 3-6 ft range. 
Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted W of the Baja California 
peninsula, including the entrance of the Gulf of California. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail 
in mixed S and NW swell.  

For the forecast, the surface trough will spread across the 
remainder Baja California Sur today while weakening. Large NW 
swell will continue to spread across the waters off the Baja 
California peninsula and then across the waters off SW Mexico 
through the weekend. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is expected early next week, with gale force winds 
possible starting Mon night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region,
where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-6 ft continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama, reaching
as far as 02N. Over the offshore waters between the coast of
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate
from the south with 5-6 ft seas in SW swell. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force winds in the 
Papagayo region are expected to continue through this morning. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama will 
diminish today. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will 
prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event. 

A cold front extends from Baja California Sur SW to near 
20N140W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted on either side of the 
front N of 25N, and westward to near 130W. The front has ushered 
in a large set of NW swell. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas 
discussed above, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters NW of a 
line from Baja California Norte to near 10N140W. High pressure of
1020 mb is centered N of the front near 26N136W. Light winds are
in the vicinity of the high center. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of 
the ITCZ to near 15N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds are 
found elsewhere across the waters, with seas in the 5-7 ft. 

For the forecast, seas greater than 8 ft will spread SE through
the first half of the weekend, covering much of the waters N of
05N and W of 110W by Sat night before subsiding. Low pressure
will approach the NW waters Fri, with associated cold front
approaching the NW waters Fri evening. Fresh to strong winds are
expected ahead and behind the front. The front will usher in
another set of large NW swell, as discussed in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section above. The area low pressure will strengthen
while moving eastward near 31N. This could bring gale force 
winds into the forecast waters by late Sat afternoon or Sat 
evening.

$$
Ramos